There are so many unknowns and even mysteries in the ceasefire agreement announced yesterday between the United States and Iran, that it can only be explained by Donald Trump’s desire to get out of this war trap at all costs.
The first major break occurred yesterday in the form of a massacre in Lebanon. When the Pakistani prime minister, a mediator in this conflict, indicated that the ceasefire applied to both war theaters, Iran and Lebanon, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu promptly denied it: not Lebanon. And to prove it, Israel carried out its most violent bombings yesterday since the beginning, killing dozens, according to Lebanese authorities. Yesterday, Iran threatened to break the truce if the ceasefire did not extend to Lebanon.
American-Iranian negotiations are supposed to take place starting tomorrow in Islamabad. But the reading of the ten-point plan produced by Iran, which Donald Trump said was a good basis for negotiation, leaves one puzzled.
These ten points, with several versions circulating, constitute a list of maximalist demands from Iran: they would give Tehran a more favorable position than before the war, the opposite of what Washington wanted. This includes compensation for war damage, lifting sanctions, a supervisory role for Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump added to the mystery yesterday by stating that the United States could create a joint venture with Iran to manage the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran currently trades this transit in cryptocurrencies or yuan, the Chinese currency.
Another surprise comes from another tweet from the American president announcing that the United States and Iran could work together to bring up the 430 kilos of enriched uranium buried during last year’s bombings. Unless there is a surprise, it is hard to imagine Iran accepting Americans on its soil for this task, especially since the uranium stock is not included in the 10 points on the table.
We are far from an agreement, which is not surprising after a war of such intensity. But the basis of the discussion seems completely shaky, and revealing of the lack of American strategy since the beginning.
Just read the detailed, rather surreal account of the American decision to go to war, published this week by the New York Times, to understand how we got here. It was Benjamin Netanyahu who came on February 11 to present a four-step plan to the Americans, in the utmost secrecy. Points 3 and 4 were popular uprising and regime change. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called points 3 and 4 “bullshit,” “nonsense”; but Donald Trump was convinced of this war.
The only one who opposed it for a while was vice president JD Vance, more isolationist. It is now he who will negotiate with the Iranians, which speaks volumes about the stakes of American domestic politics. The Iranians know this and will play on it when they meet this opponent who no longer wants to wage war. This war appears even more senseless today, by the way it is ending, or trying to end.
