After an international break weekend, Ligue 1 will return this weekend for the 28th matchday. Before that, Opta, the specialist in statistical studies, has updated its end-of-season projections. At the top, Paris Saint-Germain has taken control of the championship by comfortably defeating Nice (4-0), and the algorithms now give them a 95.66% chance of lifting the title. RC Lens, in second place with 59 points and a record of 19 wins in 27 matches, is projected to finish second with 91.23%.
Behind this top two, the race for the podium remains uncertain. Olympique de Marseille, in third place with 49 points, still has a 53.23% chance of finishing in that position despite their home loss to LOSC Lille (1-2). This defeat benefits Lille, who have improved their projections with a 24.31% chance of finishing on the podium. Olympique Lyonnais (25.92%) and AS Monaco (21.54%) are also in the mix, with Lyon suffering a loss against Monaco (1-2) that shakes up the standings in that area.
Further down, Stade Rennais (33.63%), OGC Nice (34.48%), and RC Strasbourg (42.06%) are battling for European spots according to Opta, ahead of Toulouse FC (29%), FC Lorient (28.62%), and Stade Brestois (28.90%), all in close contention.
At the bottom of the table, the outlook is bleak for three clubs. FC Metz, with only 14 points in 27 matches and a goal difference of -35, is predicted to be relegated with a 74.78% chance. FC Nantes, who have only won 4 games this season, follows at 66.06%, while AJ Auxerre is at a 59.72% risk of relegation.
These projections give an insight into what the final standings in Ligue 1 might look like, according to Opta: – PSG = 95.66% – RC Lens = 91.23% – OM = 53.23% – LOSC Lille = 24.31% – OL = 25.92% – AS Monaco = 21.54% – Stade Rennais = 33.63% – RC Strasbourg = 42.06% – FC Lorient = 28.62% – Stade Brestois = 28.90% – Toulouse = 29.00% – SCO Angers = 30.64% – Paris FC = 30.09% – Le Havre AC = 26.49% – OGC Nice = 34.48% – AJ Auxerre = 59.72% – FC Nantes = 66.06% – FC Metz = 74.78%
