While some polling institutes were predicting a record turnout, higher than in 2020 and even 2014, it is expected to reach only 56%, according to our partner Ipsos BVA – a relatively high abstention rate for an election that usually attracts more voters.
Foregone conclusions in small towns with only one list
For now, the abstainers surveyed in the Ipsos bva CESI Ecole d’ingénieurs poll for France Télévisions, Radio France, and Public Sénat/LCP-AN cite three main reasons for their abstention: they believe these elections will not change anything in their daily lives (31%), that the results are already known in their municipality and their vote will not change anything (31%), and that no candidate appeals to them (29%). This survey was conducted between March 12 and 14 on a sample of 2,000 people registered on electoral lists, among whom Ipsos subsequently interviewed the abstainers.
It is worth noting that the fact that the results are known in advance is more often mentioned by abstainers living in small municipalities (49% in municipalities with less than 1,000 inhabitants compared to 24% in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants). Some of the abstention could thus be explained by the change in the voting system in municipalities with less than 1,000 inhabitants (see our article on the end of panachage), where candidates must now officially form a list, leading 68% of the municipalities to have only one list present in the first round.
Political motivations behind abstention
More than depoliticization, this survey highlights resignation among abstainers. Only 17% of them attribute their abstention to a disinterest in politics in general, and only 6% claim to never vote.
Some abstainers even point out fairly political motivations: 16% abstain to express their discontent with politicians in general, and 14% to express their discontent specifically towards Emmanuel Macron.
