Migration policy: United States against the current of the G7

By breaking with the G7 migration strategy, the Trump administration is targeting all entry channels into the country at the same time. This comprehensive hardening, which affects both asylum and skilled immigration, marks a turning point according to Hippolyte d’Albis, Emmanuelle Auriol, and Lionel Ragot.

Since the September 11, 2001 attacks, most G7 countries have adopted a dual migration strategy. On one hand, they tighten asylum policies and crack down on irregular immigration. On the other hand, they expand avenues for economic immigration. They target the most qualified workers, as well as those who can fill jobs in high-demand sectors.

Several countries have implemented measures to facilitate this economic immigration: Canada (Express Entry, 2015), France (Passeport Talent, 2016), Germany (Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz, 2019), Japan (Specified Skilled Worker, 2019), and the United Kingdom (Points Based System, 2021). In 2023, in Hiroshima, G7 Foreign Ministers reaffirmed this logic. They advocate for “safe, orderly, and regular migration”.

A radical shift in American policy

As shown in a note from the Circle of Economists, drafted as part of the French presidency of the G7, the Trump administration diverges from this trend. It targets all migration channels simultaneously. It not only aims to crack down on irregular immigration but erases the border that separated the crackdown on irregularity from preserving channels deemed useful to the economy.

Challenging all migration channels

Since January 2025, presidential decrees have targeted the border, asylum, birthright citizenship, the resettlement of refugees, and several humanitarian protections. At the same time, the administration expands deportation priorities. It now targets all individuals without status, not just those deemed dangerous profiles.

Transfers to third countries, unrelated to the expelled individuals, represent the most radical expression. Federal judges initially curb them, then authorities partially reinstate them. The hardening also affects skilled immigration. The administration introduces an additional entry fee of $100,000 on certain new H-1B visas. This further directs selection towards higher salaries.

In total, it seeks to revoke, restrict, or challenge temporary protections for over a million people. The change is not just about the intensity of American migration policy. It also concerns its scope: all channels can now be closed simultaneously.

A measurable migration shock

The U.S. migration balance has been halved in a year, dropping from 2.7 million to 1.3 million individuals between July 2024 and July 2025. It could fall to around 321,000 by July 1, 2026. The macroeconomic cost is already evident. Academic studies suggest that such a drying up of flows would subtract several tenths of a point from American growth over two years.

But the most serious economic risk appears in the medium term. Immigration fuels American growth through at least four essential channels. Firstly, the labor supply: foreign-born individuals represent nearly a fifth of the workforce. Secondly, innovation: in the U.S., holders of temporary visas earn the majority of doctorates in computer science and engineering. Immigrants also disproportionately contribute to patents. A one percentage point increase in the proportion of highly educated immigrants in the population is associated with a 9 to 18% increase in patents per capita. Immigration also supports international trade. Diasporas reduce informational frictions between markets. Finally, some immigrant labor strengthens the U.S. economy’s adjustment capacity to shocks. Counterintuitively, it also promotes the participation of educated women in the labor market.

By simultaneously cutting off these channels, the Trump administration weakens not just a simple migration flow, but a structural advantage of the American economy. And this happens at a time when the competition between advanced economies to attract talent is intensifying.