Édouard Philippe would garner 52% of the vote intentions in the second round, compared to 48% for Jordan Bardella, according to a survey conducted for Public Sénat and 20 titles of the regional press. The former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (Horizons) could win the 2027 presidential election against Jordan Bardella (RN), according to an Odoxa-Mascaret poll released on Tuesday. According to this survey, conducted for Public Sénat and 20 titles of the regional press, Édouard Philippe would receive 52% of the vote intentions in the second round, compared to 48% for Jordan Bardella. A reversal from the scores measured in November by the same institute, where Jordan Bardella received 53% and Édouard Philippe 47%.
The leader of the National Rally would maintain a significant lead in the first round, with between 34 and 38% of the vote intentions and a 13-point advantage over Édouard Philippe in both scenarios studied. The survey tested two first round configurations, one with a union of Macronist and Republican camps behind the former Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron (2017-2020), and the other with a separate candidacy from LR’s Bruno Retailleau. The former Minister of the Interior would receive 8% of the vote intentions, compared to 21% for Édouard Philippe. Jordan Bardella would plateau at 34%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI) would get 12%, while Raphaël Glucksmann would be at 10%.
An sample of 1299 individuals was surveyed. The hypothesis of a single candidacy for the right and the center would see the vote intentions of Bruno Retailleau split between Jordan Bardella (38%) and Édouard Philippe (25%); Jean-Luc Mélenchon would remain in 3rd place with 13%, Raphaël Glucksmann at 10%. The head of Horizons, celebrated for a victory in the municipal election of Le Havre, appears to right-wing and center sympathizers as the one generating the most support, with 76% of the votes, compared to 54% for Gabriel Attal and 52% for Gérald Darmanin. This survey, like all opinion polls, represents a snapshot at a given moment and has no predictive value.
It was conducted online with a sample of 1299 people, of which 1206 were registered on the electoral roll, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 1.5 and 3.5 points. Another survey published on Saturday, conducted by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, predicted Édouard Philippe’s victory against Jordan Bardella (51.5% to 48.5%) and Marine Le Pen (53% to 47%).
