How will Iran respond to Trump’s 48 hour deadline to open Strait of Hormuz?
Azadeh Moshiri
South Asia correspondent, reporting from Dubai
So far, Iran has said it would respond with attacks on US-linked energy infrastructure in the Gulf. It has also said ships in the Strait of Hormuz that are not linked to “enemies” will have safe passage if they co-ordinate with Iran.
Iranians I’ve kept in-touch with inside the country haven’t been surprised by the attacks here in the Gulf, nor Iran’s chokehold on shipping.
One man, who still hopes the regime will be overthrown, says “what other card do they have to play?”
Lifting its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would mean Iran giving up its main leverage in this war.
If Donald Trump were to follow through on his threat to attack power plants, it would have devastating consequences for Iran.
But, for decades, the Iranian government has shown it is willing to sustain high levels of damage to its economy and suffering amongst its people, in order for the regime and its “revolutionary values” to survive.
It has suffered through Western sanctions and unleashed brutal crackdowns, as seen earlier this year. Thousands of people were killed amid nationwide protests in January.
This week, the government carried out the first hangings in relation to the demonstrations, executing three men accused of killing police officers.
The men had confessed under torture and were not offered a fair trial, according to rights groups.
Iranian leaders may also be willing to call Trump’s bluff, and hope in the meantime pressure on Gulf countries will have them urge the US to show restraint.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has claimed countries have approached Iran to find a solution. Oman has been the most vocal about diplomacy.
There is a lot at stake for Gulf countries, whose economies are built around energy, and for some tourism and their image of safety is crucial.
Yet they now see Iran as a profound threat to their way of life, and how they choose to respond will have a significant bearing on how this war unfolds.
