Is strongman leader and MAGA darling Viktor Orbán about to be ousted? What to know ahead of Hungarys elections

After nearly two decades in power, Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán could be ousted as leader in the country’s parliamentary elections on Sunday. The latest polls indicate that Orbán and his ruling Fidesz party are trailing the opposition center-right Tisza Party and its leader Péter Magyar in an election that will be closely watched by observers on both sides of the Atlantic.

Independent watchdogs and European Union officials have accused Orbán’s government of launching a sustained assault on the country’s democratic institutions and rule of law since he took office in 2010. In the 16 years since he took office, the country has descended to the rank of most corrupt country in the European Union, according to the U.K.-based anti-corruption group Transparency International.

Orbán has used his party’s current supermajority in Hungarian parliament to undermine the independence of the judiciary, crack down on independent media, demonize migrants, and discriminate against LGBTQ people, Human Rights Watch has said. Orbán has also become known for making publicly xenophobic and racist statements, calling refugees “Muslim invaders” and saying Hungarians do not want to become a “mixed race.”

Freedom House, a democracy-oriented U.S.-based nonprofit, has designated Hungary as only “partly free,” citing issues with less-than-free-and-fair elections and a stifling of independent institutions under Orbán’s leadership.

Despite concerns over Democratic backsliding in the country, a Thursday poll conducted by the independent pro-democracy research group the IDEA Institute showed that Orbán’s Fidesz party had the support of only 37% of decided voters. The center-right Tisza party has the support of 50% of decided voters, according to the poll.

Orbán has been one of President Trump’s closest global allies since Mr. Trump was first elected as U.S. president in 2016. He was the only European Union leader to publicly endorse Mr. Trump’s first successful bid for the presidency, and the relationship has deepened between the two men over the past decade.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump gave a full-throated endorsement of the Hungarian leader on Truth Social, praising Orbán’s track record of delivering results in protecting Hungary, growing the economy, creating jobs, promoting trade, stopping illegal immigration, and ensuring law and order.

The partnership between the Trump administration and Orbán was on full display Tuesday when Vice President JD Vance publicly campaigned alongside the Hungarian leader in Budapest.

Orbán’s policies have been hailed by some American conservative policy experts as a blueprint for how the U.S. should be governed. The relationship between the two countries has also involved agreements and cooperation in various fields, including a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement signed in February.

The election in Hungary may hold significant implications for Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. Orbán’s dissent from European Union support for Ukraine and warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin have been criticized by opponents. The deepening cooperation between Hungary and Russia, as well as tensions with Ukraine, have added complexity to the election dynamics.

As tensions escalate between Budapest and Kyiv, reports of Russia’s interference in boosting Orbán’s popularity have raised concerns. Vance, during his visit to Budapest, expressed skepticism over allegations of foreign influence by Ukraine in the election.