Publication Date: March 29, 2026 07:59
Reading Time: 3min – Video: 3min
The communication war is in full swing, especially regarding the ballistic capabilities of the Iranian regime. According to the Israelis, these missiles cause very limited damage, while Tehran publishes videos every day to prove otherwise.
This text corresponds to part of the transcription of the interview above. Click on the video to watch it in full.
Iran retaliates and makes it known every day since the beginning of the war. Strikes against Gulf countries and even in Israeli city centers. But according to Benjamin Netanyahu, the Iranian enemy is running out of steam. “We are taking measures to destroy ballistic missiles and nuclear programs. Currently, I can announce that Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles,” said the Israeli Prime Minister.
This announcement was denied by pro-Iran analysts. “Massive increase in Iranian strikes. The Israeli army is lying about the extent of the destruction of Iranian launchers and missiles,” reads a statement.
So, who is telling the truth? Will Iran soon be short of missiles? Missile production is one of the best-kept secrets of the Iranian army. To detect a trend, one must collect clues by examining images from amateurs or satellites. An analysis of an fire behind a mountain reveals that it is taking place at a major missile production facility. Smoke points seen via satellite, another essential site in southern Iran.
Putting all this data together allows the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an institute linked to the US Department of Defense, to describe a trend. “Among the factories hit by the strikes is the Shahroud plant. It is a factory where Iran planned to manufacture nuclear warheads and launch them from there. It is difficult to determine the overall effect these destructions will have on Iranian missile production capabilities, but we can say that the program has deteriorated,” explains Kelly Campa, head of the Middle East team at ISW.
Result: fewer Iranian strikes against Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates. In three weeks, Iran went from launching 137 missiles and 332 drones to 7 missiles and 16 drones. But Iran has been accumulating a stockpile for decades, difficult to evaluate. “The production capacity, and therefore the ability for Iranians to launch massive missile salvos, especially ballistic missiles, has greatly diminished. However, there is a real residual strike capacity because the mix of means used has evolved. We are moving away from missile salvos and all-missile attacks, but rather towards a mix of drone-missile, similar to what we are seeing in Ukraine,” details Thibault Fouillet, a researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research.
Iranian missile production seems to have been greatly reduced. However, thanks to the use of drones, which are easy to produce, and hidden stocks, Iran maintains daily pressure on its neighbors with less intense but still dangerous strikes.
