The war in the Middle East slows down the recovery of old real estate in France

The old real estate market has also been hit hard by the consequences of the war in the Middle East. The National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim) published a particularly worrying inventory on Thursday June 18.

She notes that the sector, which had regained color in 2025, is in the process of diving back under the effect of the geopolitical situation. In particular: the surge in energy prices and its consequences on the purchasing power of households. Two main reasons given: inflation and the lack of confidence of potential buyers in the general situation.

This situation has a concrete impact on the number of real estate transactions. After a low point in 2024, with 845,000 sales of old real estate, the market rebounded in 2025 to reach 925,000 transactions.

This recovery was explained by a stabilization of prices and, above all, by a relaxation of credit conditions, with interest rates becoming more favorable again. The outbreak of war in Iran on February 28, 2026, however, abruptly interrupted this dynamic.

Concretely, between March and April, while the war was in full swing in the Middle East, Fnaim recorded 17,000 fewer real estate sales, over just two months. The trend could also continue, depending on the evolution of the situation and the discussions around the peace agreement.

In any case, Fnaim has already revised its forecasts downward for the whole of 2026. It now expects no more than 900,000 transactions, significantly less than in 2025.

This observation comes a few days after the increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank. A decision intended to contain inflation, but which could also increase the cost of real estate loans for households wishing to buy housing.

Between the consequences of the war in the Middle East and the rise in interest rates by the central bank, the real estate sector finds itself confronted with a double difficulty which it would have done without. Added to this is the French political context, marked by uncertainties one year before the presidential election. As the president of Fnaim, Loïc Cantin, reminds us, real estate investment requires trust and requires visibility and serenity. Conditions which still seem far from being met.