The United States and Iran signed this fourteen-point text remotely, before the meeting initially planned in Switzerland this Friday. In Israel, this phase of talks is causing political turmoil.
Israel has no intention of ceasing its operation in Lebanon. His army still carries out daily strikes in the south of the country against Hezbollah positions. The announcement of a future agreement between Washington and Tehran was very poorly received by the Jewish state, which did not participate in the discussions. Enough to give rise to tensions with Donald Trump, especially since the American president signed this memorandum remotely on Wednesday June 17 in Versailles, when he was initially supposed to go to Bürgenstock, a summit in the Swiss Alps, on Friday. The new phase provides for thematic negotiations with Iran for 60 days. But the Islamic Republic still conditions this agreement on the end of military operations in the country of Cédre.
As the signing approached, American diplomacy had little taste for the latest initiatives of the Israeli partner. “Bibi must be more responsible regarding Lebanon”Donald Trump raged, on the sidelines of the G7. Before that, Israel had carried out a strike on Beirut, while the United States was working on its de-escalation agreement. “You don’t need to destroy an entire building every time you’re looking for someone”continued the American leader. Annoyed, he even suggested that Syria take up the torch of the Jewish state and “take care” now Hezbollah.
These public declarations are seen as a disavowal in Israel, where the announcement of the memorandum has heated up a political class already focused on the legislative elections in the fall. “The Trump agreement does not bind us”first estimated the far-right minister responsible for National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir. On the left, the leader of the Democrats, Yair Golan, castigated a document negotiated without “consent” or the “participation” of Israel. During his declaration of candidacy Monday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that his troops would remain in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza “as long as necessary”.
These tensions between the two leaders appear in a “unfavorable economic situation, with divergent electoral agendas”analyzes Clément Therme, specialist on Iran and author of Iran-Israel, the ideological war (ed. Tallandier). Donald Trump must reduce inflation to hope to win the mid-term elections in November. “He therefore needs a de-escalation with the Islamic Republic of Iran and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, his priority”. The Israeli leader needs “to appear as a war leader. This is why he continues his military operations in Lebanon independently.”
“The disagreement is cyclical and temporary. It is linked to internal political issues with the November midterms and even the organization of the World Cup.”
Clément Therme, spécialiste de l’Iranà franceinfo
The Israeli channel N12 revealed that the Jewish state initially received a refusal when it wanted to consult the text of the memorandum. Some Israeli commentators are now crying treason. “Donald Trump betrayed Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu must not flinch”fumed the nationalist editorialist Boaz Haetzni, in the daily Yediot Aharonot. “It is as if, on the eve of the fall of Nazi Germany, American President Franklin D. Roosevelt had signed an agreement with Hitler.” The American leader subsequently praised her “great partnership” with Benyamin Netanyahu, describing the disagreement over Lebanon as “small dispute”. Israel, he said, did receive a copy of the agreement.
At the end of this conflict, Israel did not achieve its strategic objectives. The Iranian regime is still in place, and the power of the Revolutionary Guards even appears to be strengthened. No notable progress has been made on the nuclear issue. Nothing, either, on the missile program. Finally, the versions of the memorandum released in the press do not mention the fate of Hezbollah or Hamas, these “proxies” of Iran still active in the neighborhood of the Jewish state. All these points will be addressed during future negotiations, which will define the future balance of power.
“Israel is betting on the failure of the second phase of this agreement and on the fact that no agreement is possible between the Islamic Republic and the United States”analyzes Clément Therme. This option cannot be excluded, given the displayed intransigence of the parties. Donald Trump also threatened on Wednesday to start again “drop bombs” you are l’Iran “not behaving well”. Such a setback would mark the return to “a coercive diplomacy” between the two countries, marked by pressure and a low-intensity conflict, subcontracted to the Jewish State and Hezbollah. “The Israeli Prime Minister would then once again become an interesting partner for the United States.”
A nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran, conversely, could lead Israel “in a strategic impasse”. Clément Therme cites the precedent of 2015, unique in the history of Israeli-American relations. “President Barack Obama signed the Vienna agreement against the advice of Benjamin Netanyahu. This is the only time the Iranian strategy of dividing Israel and the United States worked.” This time, it is not certain that Iran can achieve the same result. He will be “difficult for the Islamic Republic to reproduce what succeeded with Barack Obama, because he was ready to compromise.”
“There may be a fear in Israel that the Iranian strategy will work again in nuclear negotiations.”
Clément Therme, author of “Iran-Israel, the ideological war” (ed. Tallandier)spécialiste de l’Iran à franceinfo
The Trump administration, for its part, “still calls for zero uranium enrichment for at least 20 years”. The memorandum provides for a conditional lifting of sanctions, theme by theme (ballistic program, support for armed groups, human rights, etc.). The Islamic Republic will not succeed in isolating Israel without finding compromise.
But new operations launched in southern Lebanon, during talks between Tehran and Washington, could put the test “the Iranian doctrine of the unity of the fronts”adds Clément Therme. This system of alliances established by Tehran in the region (Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.) is thought of as an organic deterrent tool. Besides, “the word Lebanon appears three times in the de-escalation agreement, according to Iranian sources”
/2026/06/17/6a329747af12c263716179.jpg "Israel \"betting on deal failure\" : in Tel Aviv, the negotiations between Washington and Tehran are experienced as a disavowal")
The Israeli army, at this stage, has still not received clear instructions, according to the newspaper Haaretz. In the meantime, it has been instructed to confine itself to defensive operations and the destruction of targets deemed essential, according to the officers cited by the daily. They themselves appear divided on the strategy to adopt, because part of the answer is now in the hands of Washington and Tehran. Ultimately, the troops could be forced to retreat behind the yellow line, around ten kilometers deep into Lebanese territory.
“There have been operations in Lebanon since 1982. It is therefore not fundamentally linked to the action of the current Prime Minister, but to the nature of relations between Israel and some of its neighbors”nuance Clément Therme. “These tensions will exist as long as the Islamic Republic wants to use Hezbollah against Israel, regardless of who is the Israeli leader.” Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem said Wednesday that negotiations between Lebanon and Israel should be limited “à la sécurité mutuelle”. And that “any plan to disarm [le groupe pro-iranien] will not pass”.
