Agreement between Iran and the United States: why the most difficult remains to be done during the next 60 days of negotiations

The hard part begins. After the signing of a peace memorandum of understanding by the United States and Iran on Wednesday June 17, the two countries now have 60 days to discuss the key points of its implementation. Talks must begin without further delay. “It is still planned that the United States and Iran, as well as the mediators Pakistan and Qatar, will meet” Friday June 19 near Lucerne, for “start the first negotiations”the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Thursday.

These two months will prove critical. The text signed on Wednesday by the American and Iranian presidents, Donald Trump and Massoud Pezeshkian, provides for an end to hostilities, the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – which Tehran had blocked since the end of February -, as well as the simultaneous lifting of the American blockade weighing on Iranian ports. But it leaves many points unresolved, starting with the very duration of the negotiations. Theoretically 60 days, it can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties.

A very plausible hypothesis, according to James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. “It seems extremely unlikely to me that a final agreement will ever be reached, let alone within 60 days”he asserts in the columns of Monde. The daily also recalls that it took two years of tough negotiations for the Obama administration to achieve the first agreement on Iranian nuclear power, from which the United States withdrew during Donald Trump’s first term in 2018.

The fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles is probably the biggest unknown in this memorandum of understanding. When they launched their offensive in Iran in February, the United States and Israel said they wanted to prevent Tehran from acquiring an atomic bomb. The Islamic Republic undertakes, in the text, not to “obtain or develop nuclear weapons”. But it will be up to the negotiators to “regulate the fate of accumulated enriched materials” by Iran, one of the options considered being to dilute the enriched uranium on site, “under the supervision of the IAEA”the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“This is a very complex operation, and it’s no secret. So we will have to be extremely precise in the details”reacted Thursday Rafael Grossi, its general director. “Everything can work when both sides decide they want something done”he said, while it is unknown what happened to the more than 400 kg of enriched uranium that the IAEA last saw in June 2025.

The dismantling of Iran’s ballistic arsenal does not appear in the memorandum of understanding signed on Wednesday. The danger these missiles represent for Israel and for American bases in the Middle East was nevertheless part of the justifications put forward by the United States at the start of the conflict against the Islamic Republic, recalls The World. Donald Trump said Wednesday, during a press conference at the end of the G7 summit, that this point would be discussed with the Gulf countries. “They must have some, because others do.”declared the American president, on the subject of ballistic missiles. According to The Hill, he added that these weapons “weren’t the problem”car “They can do damage to a small place, but they don’t blow up the planet.”

At the same time, Iran obtained important concessions in the memorandum. The United States is committed not only to “end all types of sanctions” against the Islamic Republic, but also “make funds and assets fully available and usable” frozen Iranians. If the timetable for lifting sanctions must be discussed in the next 60 days, the United States will, in the meantime, grant “dérogations” in Tehran to allow it to resume its oil exports. Another positive point for Iran: the implementation of a plan of 300 billion dollars, or 261 billion euros, for the reconstruction and economic development of the country, according to terms which will also have to be negotiated in the coming weeks.

In the United States, these concessions aroused much skepticism. Donald Trump “gives way more than he gets”a écrit le Wall Street Journalwhile the conservative channel Fox News reported criticism from those who “claim that the framework offers Iran enormous financial benefits, without requiring the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure”.

Tehran also intends to negotiate other economic advances, this time on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. While it provides for the immediate and safe resumption of commercial vessel traffic in the maritime corridor, the protocol specifies that passages will be made “free for 60 days only”. The upcoming talks will therefore also focus on the Iranian ambition to charge ships which use the strait, which “will not return to the pre-war situation”assured Wednesday the chief negotiator of the Islamic Republic, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

“Iran has a right of sovereignty over Hormuz and, of course, we will collect a fee for these services.”

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, chief negotiator of the Islamic Republic

in an interview on Iranian television

The conflict in Lebanon could, however, complicate progress in the discussions. The first point of the protocol provides “the immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”but also to guarantee “territorial integrity and sovereignty” from the Cédre country. For months, Israel has been leading an air and ground offensive against Hezbollah, a pro-Tehran Shiite group. On Wednesday, the leader of the Lebanese movement welcomed a “great victory” for Iran and called for “take advantage” of this agreement for “expel Israel” of Lebanese territory.

The Jewish state did not react to the signing of the agreement. But he had very coolly received the announcement, earlier in the week, of the beginnings of an understanding between Tehran and Washington. On Thursday, the Israeli army even published a new map of the territories it occupies in Lebanon, reports Reuters. According to the press agency, which cites anonymous sources close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Tel Aviv is now trying to negotiate with the United States the right to continue its operations in Lebanon.

“Israel is betting on the failure of the second phase of this agreement and on the fact that no agreement is possible between the Islamic Republic and the United States”analyzes Clément Therme, Iran specialist, to franceinfo. Donald Trump himself admitted on Wednesday that a resumption of hostilities remained possible. “If, after 60 days, we do not reach an agreement, we will continue to bomb,” he threatened.