The International Energy Agency (IEA) once again revises downward global oil demand for 2026 in its latest monthly report published on Wednesday, pointing to the “considerable” impact of the war in the Middle East on the market, which also affects global oil stocks.
The IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, a decline almost three times greater than what it forecast last month, when it still expected a return to normal from June.
Preliminary figures show that oil deliveries in the second quarter of 2026 would have fallen by almost 5% year-on-year, due to “rising fuel prices and supply difficulties”.
This quarterly decline in deliveries, notes the IEA, would be the first since 2020.
And “despite the significant drop in demand for oil (…), reserves continue to erode at a record rate”, notes the IEA in its report. The melting of stocks is particularly marked in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), whose reserves have reached their lowest level since 1990, indicates the IEA.
Observed global stocks decreased by more than 220 million barrels in April and May.
Certainly, the agreement reached between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the war and unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil flows pass, “opens the way to a resumption of exports from the Middle East”, agrees the IEA.
But “operational and political constraints” remain and “pose risks to the outlook”, tempers the organization, which does not foresee a rebound in demand or supply of oil before 2027.
For next year, the IEA forecasts a “modest” increase in demand (up to 2 mb/d), but a big rebound in supply (+8 mb/d), which could bring a “welcome respite” to the oil market, and an “opportunity” to “replenish” stocks.
published on June 17 at 10:27 a.m., AFP
