After signing defense treaties with France and the United Kingdom, Warsaw must initial a security agreement with Berlin on Wednesday with reduced ambitions due to the historical reluctance of the Polish right and the specter of a presidential veto.
The agreement is to be signed in Warsaw by Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz and his German counterpart Boris Pistorius on the occasion of the 35th anniversary of the 1991 Good Neighbor Treaty.
Bilateral defense agreements have been increasing in Europe since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and especially in a context of uncertainty over the future of American military engagement.
A member state of the European Union and NATO bordering Ukraine, Russia (exclave of Kaliningrad) and Moscow’s ally Belarus, Warsaw recently signed two important treaties with the continent’s only two nuclear powers: France on May 9, 2025, and the United Kingdom on May 27 2026.
According to the Polish Defense Ministry, the agreement with neighboring Germany updates a framework agreement signed in 2011 and mainly covers military mobility, the development of logistical infrastructure, cooperation in the Baltic Sea, cyber security and space.
However, it does not include any additional mutual guarantees clause, these remaining limited to the existing commitments of NATO (article 5) and the EU.
– Accord limité –
By presenting a more restrictive text, the pro-European government of Donald Tusk would have encountered national-conservative opposition from the Law and Justice party (PiS) and would have risked censure from nationalist President Karol Nawrocki.
“We all know the obsession of PiS and the president with everything related to Germany, so of course he would veto it,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said recently.
The treaty signed with London has still not been ratified by the head of state.
The agreement provides for an intensification of coordination between Warsaw and Berlin, including within the framework of NATO. From July, German soldiers are to help Poland strengthen its border with Kaliningrad as part of the “Eastern Shield” project.
At sea, this cooperation is just as crucial to protect essential underwater infrastructure and monitor the Russian “ghost fleet”, underlines Piotr Szymanski, of the Center for Oriental Studies, to AFP.
Poland also participates in several regional formats including Germany, including the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland), recently expanded to the “Weimar+” format with Ukraine and the United Kingdom.
– Reinforcement of the eastern flank –
In view of the next NATO summit in Ankara in July, the Europeans intend to display a united position, the central question being the future of the American presence on the continent.
A reduction in American capabilities would imply an increased role for Poland and Germany, recalls Polish Deputy Defense Minister Pawel Zalewski.
According to Mr. Szymanski, command capabilities on the eastern flank will be strengthened with the transfer of the “Command Task Force Baltic” to Gdynia, a strategic Baltic port already considered a logistical gateway to NATO.
At the same time, discussions are continuing within the Polish government on preparations for a possible increased presence of American troops in Poland, which would further shift NATO’s military center of gravity eastward.
published on June 17 at 5:22 a.m., AFP
