Over 400 missiles launched since late February
The Israeli anti-air defense system, highly sophisticated and effective, is organized in layers and can respond to threats at any altitude. Arrow 2 and 3 missiles can intercept missiles flying outside the Earth’s atmosphere, while American THAAD systems complement the Israeli defense. “There is no place in Israel that is not protected by the multi-layered air defense,” said Brigadier General Pini Yungman, president of TSG Group, an Israeli security systems company. However, in defense, it’s never 100%, and Israel’s missile interception rate of 92% is “exceptional,” specified Brigadier General Pini Yungman.
According to the Israeli army, which discloses few details about its defense systems, over 400 ballistic missiles have been fired by Iran since the start of the war triggered on February 28 by Israeli-American strikes on the Islamic Republic. The interception rate has “exceeded expectations,” recently praised army spokesperson Nadav Shoshani. Indeed, most damages in Israel have been caused by missile debris. But among the 19 civilians killed in Israel since the start of the war, more than half were killed by Iranian missiles that penetrated the defense system.
The issue of ammunition stocks
Approximately two weeks after the start of the war, the American online media Semafor estimated, citing American sources, that Israel was “dangerously running out of ballistic missile interceptors.” An Israeli military source denied this by stating that there was no shortage “so far,” and the army was “ready for a long battle.” However, according to an analysis by the British research center Rusi published a few days ago, the United States, Israel, and their allies have consumed vast quantities of offensive and defensive ammunition in the first sixteen days of war: 11,294 munitions, totaling $26 billion. The long-range interceptors and high-precision ammunition were “almost depleted” after these initial two weeks.
“This means that if the war continues, aircraft will have to penetrate deeper into Iranian airspace, and defensively, this will mean facing more Iranian missiles and drones,” said American Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek, one of the study’s authors. Production costs and delays are high, especially for interceptors like the Israeli Arrows. “It’s not just a money issue, it’s an industrial reality: long lead times for components, limited testing capacity, fragile subcontractors, and production chains that don’t unfold like an iPhone factory,” added American Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek. According to the Rusi report, 81.33% of the Arrow interceptor missile stocks Israel had before the war have already been depleted, and they will likely be “completely consumed by the end of March.”
Technical limits of the system
Brigadier General Pini Yungman estimates that Israel can produce interceptors faster than Iran can manufacture ballistic missiles. However, the Israeli system is not immune to malfunctions. The army admitted that a failure of the “David’s Sling” missile defense system allowed two Iranian missiles to fall last Saturday in two southern cities of Israel, including Dimona, where a strategic nuclear research center is located. According to the Israeli newspaper Calcalist, the army chose to use the shorter-range David’s Sling to preserve its Arrow stocks.
