If climate shocks redefine opportunities locally, increases in the prices of natural resources increase the stakes of conflicts. Rises in oil and metal prices have often intensified violence in production zones, especially when extraction is capital-intensive and resources can be looted. The green transition risks exacerbating these dynamics.
The demand for “transition minerals” (also called “critical minerals”) is rapidly increasing, further amplifying this form of plunder in certain regions, while revenues from fossil fuels are decreasing elsewhere.
The precise mechanisms by which mining activity triggers conflicts also depend on the type of exploitation. In the case of artisanal mining, local employment plays a much more significant role than in industrial exploitation. Additionally, pollution from the extraction of these minerals – particularly water contamination – can reduce agricultural yields far beyond mining sites. Livelihoods are thus lost, fueling the risks of conflict.
Risk factors often overlap. Regions prone to drought are frequently located above mineral deposits. Climate risks and resource-related risks could mutually worsen to trigger violence, although these complementarities are still poorly understood.
