Kallas–von der Leyen: a deadly antagonism for the EU

Bonjour ! We are David Carretta, Christian Spillmann and Oliver Grimm, the authors of La Matinale Européenne. The French and Spanish editions are handled by Camille Lamotte.

Today’s analysis is devoted to Kaja Kalla. The High Representative suffered a new attack with the leak in the Financial Times of information on a potential dismantling of the European External Action Service. A conflict with Ursula von der Leyen is in progress. David and Christian explain that Personal and interinstitutional clashes paralyze EU foreign policy.

In our briefing we deal with the summit of the G7 a you European Council which will be held this week. China, Ukraine and the Middle East will also be discussed by foreign ministers today in Luxembourg. Thursday and Friday, heads of state and government will face each other on the 2028–34 EU budget. Governments have found an agreement to preserve the rights of air passengersincluding compensation for delays and cancellations. The Swiss saved the agreements with the EU by rejecting a référendum anti-immigration.

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By David Carretta and Christian Spillmann

The unprecedented attack launched against Kaja Kallas, with the escape into the Financial Times information on the potential dismantling of its European External Action Service (EEAS), hides two deeper problems which undermine the European Union’s capacity to pursue an effective and coherent foreign policy. First problem: the authority of the High Representative is undermined by the rivalry with Ursula von der Leyen and by the determination of the President of the Commission to appropriate skills that she does not have. Behind the leak “there is a personal agenda†, a diplomat from a member state assured us. Second problem: under Kallas, the EEAS has become a dysfunctional institution, marked by a hemorrhage of senior officials and devoid of any real political direction. The leak “is a warning shot to Kallas†, a second diplomat told us. With the war led by Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, the betrayal of Donald Trump and the challenge posed by China, can the EU afford institutional wars and the blocking of its diplomatic arm?

On Thursday June 11, the Financial Times revealed that France and Germany were discussing a reform of the EEAS led by Kaja Kallas – and in particular the possibility of a dismemberment of the service created in 2009 by the Lisbon Treaty, to transfer its powers to the Commission and to the member states The next day, the Commission spokesperson assured von der Leyen’s support to the EEAS “It is obvious that our president supports him,†she said at that time, Kallas was in Paris to participate in a conference. with Israeli and Palestinian NGOs committed to the two-state solution The High Representative showed France’s support for it “It’s a pleasure to be in Paris today for talks with Jean-Noël Barrot. (…) further strengthening our common decision-making process on EU foreign policy Together, we are working to build a stronger and more united Europe…, said Kallas “Together we are acting for a strong Europe, true to our values and our beliefs. European…, replied Barrot.

Several sources have confirmed to us the existence of a reflection launched by France on the future of the EEAS. Paris shared with Berlin and the EU institutions a “note” presenting several options. One of them actually provides for the dismantling of the EEAS. But the central option – and the one that France prefers – is that of strengthening the EEAS and the role of the High Representative within the Commission. The complete opposite of what the leak from the Financial Timesnamely a strengthening of the powers of the Commission and its president. The informal document “was exploited” in “a game between certain people who influence the press in this city,” one of our sources explained to us.

France’s position was outlined by Barrot in a speech to the EU ambassadors’ conference in April: “We are counting on a strong EEAS.†. The French minister had also called von der Leyen to order, guilty of having taken several autonomous initiatives in the field of foreign policy. The Commission must respect “the letter and the spirit of the treaties,†Barrot said. One of the options in the French “note” plans to make the High Representative the first vice-president of the Commission, giving her direct supervision over the commissioners managing portfolios linked to foreign policy. Currently, Kallas is just another vice president. The first executive vice-president is the Spaniard Teresa Ribera. It is von der Leyen and his chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, who dictate the line to the commissioners responsible for defense industry, the southern neighborhood, enlargement, trade, development policy and humanitarian aid.

At the start of his second mandate, von der Leyen succeeded in carrying out a “power grab” over the High Representative and the EEAS. After five years of difficult relations with Kallas’ predecessor, the Spaniard Josep Borrell, the President of the Commission convinced the new High Representative to cede several portfolios to incorporate them into her institution. “There is a Defense Commissioner who should normally take care of industry, but whose ideas go well beyond that. There is a commissioner for the Mediterranean. There is a commissioner for international partnerships…, a third diplomat explained to us: “The High Representative has difficulty existing.â€

The High Representative is “the only person empowered” to lead foreign and defense policy, explained Josep Borrell in an interview with The European Morning. “The Council has already issued serious warnings to the Commission against its expansive vision,†Borrell said. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius declared that von der Leyen did not have the authority to speak of a European military force in Ukraine. Von der Leyen has exceeded his powers on several occasions, provoking irritation or reaction from member states. She granted a blank check to the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to respond to the attacks of October 7, 2023 in Gaza, refusing to condemn and then sanction Israel. She sent Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Åuica to the inaugural meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace. She supported the goal of regime change in Iran at the start of the war launched by the American president.

The ambition to lead a “geopolitical†Commission was expressed by von der Leyen, Angela Merkel’s former defense minister, from the day of her appointment in 2019. Her chief of staff, Bjoern Seibert, navigates questions of security and politics more naturally foreign as among the regulations and directives of the single market. The various crises that have followed one another – Covid, Russia’s war in Ukraine, Trump’s trade war – have offered von der Leyen a stage from which to project himself onto the international stage. Trump gave her the title of “President of Europe”.

In the operation to subtract power from Kallas, von der Leyen had considered creating an intelligence service within the Commission and an arms purchasing center, before being blocked by the member states. Even his choice to convene meetings of the college of commissioners dedicated to security – the Security College – is contested. “Some state secrets are transmitted directly to Moscow and Beijing,†an official from another institution told us, referring to the Hungarian commissioner appointed by Viktor Orbán.

During the second term, Trump’s disengagement from European security gave the President of the Commission the opportunity to encroach on another competence exclusively reserved for member states: defense. “The Commission has no competence in this sector, even if the current commissioner in charge of defense (the Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius) publicly takes on the mission of building a European Defense Union and even if President von der Leyen entrusted him with this mission in her letter of invitation. mission,” Borrell told us, denouncing the “usurpation” of the High Representative’s responsibilities. “Allowing a member of the Commission to claim to assume the functions of High Representative (…) can only create a paralyzing institutional conflict†, Borrell explained to us.

Foreign and security policy is the responsibility of member states and Kallas, but the instruments to conduct it within the EU – financial aid, visas, trade preferences, customs duties – are largely in the hands of the Commission. Kallas will show up empty-handed at the Foreign Affairs Council today, despite demands from France and Sweden to sanction Israel by hitting products from illegal settlements in the West Bank, because Trade Commissioner MaroÅ¡ÅefÄoviÄ has so far refused to present a proposal to increase customs duties. Even appointments become a weapon in power struggles. Von der Leyen refused the transfer of a senior Commission official – former Secretary General and Jean-Claude Juncker’s chief of staff, Martin Selmayr – whom Kallas would have liked to appoint as Deputy Secretary General of the EEAS.

The High Representative is an impossible position. “I know how difficult this position is and everyone exercises it according to their own strategic and geopolitical vision,” recalls Borrell. He too was a victim of von der Leyen’s obstruction, as well as divisions between member states. But over the course of a year and a half at the head of the EEAS, Kallas attracted more and more criticism. The High Representative is accused of only thinking about Russia and forgetting the Middle East, Africa and South America. Several diplomats expressed to us their exasperation at the fact that Kallas does not listen to advice and often launches proposals without first consulting the major member states. Last year, his idea for a 40 billion euro fund for military aid to Ukraine was quickly abandoned due to opposition from Germany, France and Italy. This year, it took three months before ministers discussed his document on the red lines of a possible negotiation with Russia.

Within the Commission, “Kallas is very arrogant and shows contempt for the other commissioners,†an official explained to us. After belonging to the exclusive European Council club as Prime Minister of Estonia, Kallas finds himself in a lower-ranking position and reluctant to share the stage with others. His personnel choices are not only debated, but counterproductive to the EEAS’s ability to function. Kallas drove out most of the officials who had worked with Borrell. Some preferred to return to the Commission, like von der Leyen’s new diplomatic advisor, Simon Mordue. The new officials chosen by Kallas do not last forever. The Secretary General of the EEAS, the Spaniard Belén Martínez Carbonell, left less than a year and a half after taking office. Two of the three deputy secretary general positions are vacant. The three positions will not be filled until after the summer.

The position of Secretary General of the EEAS is extremely important in maintaining political relations with capitals, as well as in relations with the Commission. The British Catherine Ashton, the first High Representative after the creation of the EEAS, was assisted by the Frenchman Pierre Vimont; the Italian Federica Mogherini by the German Helga Schmid; the Spaniard Borrell by the Italian Stefano Sannino. All three were heavyweights in European diplomacy and had extensive experience in Brussels. Kallas chose to entrust the Secretary General of the EEAS with a role that was more administrative than political. This discourages applications from the most qualified ambassadors and national diplomats to take Martinez Carbonell’s place.

“Things are not working within his institution. The ambassadors are not satisfied with the way in which the files are prepared, one of the diplomats with whom we spoke told us. Kallas announced that foreign ministers will discuss the role and reform of the EEAS at their informal meeting – the Gymnich – on September 1. “The EEAS was created at a very different time, when the world was completely different,†another diplomat told us.

And yet, relations between the High Representative and the Commission are fundamental for the proper functioning of EU foreign policy. Personal qualities also count. Almost everyone we spoke to agreed: “Kallas can do better. The President of the Commission can do better.†The most effective High Representative was the Spaniard Javier Solana who, between 1999 and 2009, when the EEAS did not yet exist, held the position of Secretary General of the Council and worked in close collaboration with the Commissioner for External Relations of at the time, Chris Patten. This agreement is over. Now, between personal wars and interinstitutional conflicts, “we still don’t know what Europe’s telephone number is,” Borrell told us.

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Summits

G7 in Evian: the summit of the hypocrites – Emmanuel Macron did well to choose a spa town to bring together today the leaders of the group of seven economic powers. Evian water should calm the heartburn caused by the idea of ​​spending three days with Donald Trump. The American president will have celebrated his 80th birthday, which makes him the oldest of the participants, but he hates being reminded how old he is. And the Iranians are making a fool of him with their refusal to sign the agreement to end his war in the Middle East. Trump is likely to be in a bad mood and is not fooled: he knows that people are laughing at him behind his back. He punished German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for denouncing his lack of strategy against Iran. But he is the strong man of the G7, the one we fear and the one we will court. Each of the other six members of the G7 has been humiliated or fallen out with Trump. The Canadian Mark Carney exasperates him, he despises the Briton Keir Starmer, the Italian Giorgia Meloni disappoints him, the Japanese Sanae Takaichi is a strong head, he mocks the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron and he does not understand the German Friedrich Merz. Trump spoke by telephone yesterday with Zelensky and received a call from Vladimir Putin to wish him a happy birthday. The G7 declaration has already been written, as will that of the NATO summit at the beginning of July. But Trump can ruin everything. He already did so during a NATO summit during his first term. Then his host and the other guests will increase their efforts to get into his good graces and obtain his favors. Emmanuel Macron has already organized a sumptuous dinner for him on Wednesday evening at the Château de Versailles.

The Chinese dilemma for European leaders –” Whether at the G7 summit which opens today in Évian or at the European Council on Thursday and Friday in Brussels, China will be one of the protagonists in the debates between European leaders. What can we do in the face of the growing economic and geopolitical threat posed by Beijing? The von der Leyen Commission has proposed a “more robust†approach to trade relations. Trade Commissioner Morocco indicated the possibility of introducing “a dedicated instrument†to encourage the diversification of supply chains. But, before presenting concrete proposals, von der Leyen wants clear directions from heads of state and government. Some leaders – such as the Spaniard Pedro Sánchez and the Czech Andrej Babi – want to preserve close relations with China. Others fear trade retaliation from Beijing, which could prove counterproductive for Europeans. The EU also faces geopolitical dilemmas, with China’s support for Russia in the war of aggression against Ukraine. “We have confirmation that China trained Russian soldiers, some of whom were then directly engaged in the war against Ukraine,†a European diplomat told us. The subject will be discussed today in Luxembourg by EU foreign ministers.

Geopolitics

The Kallas proposal to thaw the European Peace Facility for Ukraine — High Representative for Foreign Policy Kaja Kallas will today test member states’ willingness to resume use of the European Peace Facility to provide additional military aid to Ukraine, beyond the EU’s €90 billion loan. The new Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar has lifted his reservation on the use of 6.6 billion euros from the European Peace Facility which had been allocated to Ukraine. Kallas will present a proposal to divide the sum into three parts. The first tranche of 4.7 billion euros should be used to reimburse countries which transferred their arms stocks to Ukraine. The second tranche of 1 billion euros should finance the joint purchase of new weapons. The remaining 900 million euros would be intended for the training of Ukrainian soldiers led by the EU through the EUMAM mission. If agreed, will the European Peace Facility be resurrected to resolve the problem of burden sharing in military assistance to Kyiv? “There is no appetite for this,†a diplomat from a major member state told us.

Ukraine and Moldova open first set of accession chapters – The day is historic for Ukraine and Moldova. After an impasse of more than a year and a half due to Viktor Orbán’s veto, the European Union will convene the intergovernmental conference today to formally launch negotiations on the first set of negotiating chapters – the first “cluster” dedicated to the fundamentals (Rule of law, democracy, fight against corruption). The final green light for Ukraine and Moldova came on Friday during the meeting of the ambassadors of the twenty-seven member states “It is recognition of the determination, courage and hard work shown by the two countries to advance reforms, even in the face of immense challenges, and a signal that the EU’s offer of peace, stability and opportunity is unrivaled… European Council President António Costa said. “A bigger EU is in our common interest,” Costa added.

No unanimity to sanction Ben-Gvir, no proposal on the colonies — EU foreign ministers will today discuss the proposal to sanction Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir after the publication of images of mistreatment of Gaza Flotilla activists. A large majority of member states are in favor, but unanimity is still lacking. “The Council is unanimous in condemning the behavior of Minister Ben-Gvir. Is this enough to punish him? I’m not sure, a diplomat told us. The request made by France and Sweden to sanction products from Israeli colonies in the West Bank is also blocked. The von der Leyen Commission has refused to present a proposal, arguing that unanimity is necessary to adopt it. An opinion from the Council’s Legal Service considers that the qualified majority is sufficient because it is a measure of a commercial nature. A majority of member states could formally ask the Commission to present a proposal, forcing von der Leyen to act. “We don’t have the numbers yet. But we are getting closer…, the diplomat told us.

CFP

Agreement in the Council on the structure of the budget — European Affairs Ministers are expected tomorrow to agree on the Council’s position on the two main chapters of the new Multiannual Financial Framework: the National and Regional Partnership Plans and the European Competitiveness Fund. Yesterday, the ambassadors of the twenty-seven member states welcomed the compromise text presented by the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU. The texts were considered satisfactory and mature to achieve a partial general approach. The General Affairs Council will also be asked to agree to the third chapter, Global Europe, which finances foreign policy. Ursula von der Leyen reacted enthusiastically. “Excellent news,†the President of the Commission wrote on X. “There is still work to be done, but the direction is clear. Member States support the Commission’s ambition for a simpler, more modern EU budget.â€

Disagreement over budget figures — The discussion between ambassadors on the Cypriot presidency’s proposal to reduce the overall amount of the EU’s 2028–34 budget by 2%, while increasing resources for the Common Agricultural Policy and cohesion, is, however, far from unanimous. During yesterday’s meeting of Coreper – the body where sit the ambassadors of the Member States – many delegations said they were not in favor of the budget cuts contained in the “nego box”, emphasizing the importance of the cohesion policy for the modernization of the budget. Several Member States also recalled the importance to intensify discussions on own resources. A minority considered that the overall volume of the budget is too high An agreement requires unanimity The “nego box†will be discussed by the General Affairs Council tomorrow before going to the heads of state and government at the European Council on Thursday and Friday.

Rights

Agreement on Air Passenger Rights; compensation is maintained — EU governments on Friday gave the green light to a potential agreement with the European Parliament on the reform of the regulation on air passengers’ rights, abandoning their demand to revise downwards compensation in the event of cancellation, delay or denied boarding. The agreement must be confirmed today by MEPs, before an informal meeting of the Conciliation Committee between the two institutions. Time was running out: an agreement had to be reached before midnight on June 15. The Commission’s proposal dates back to 2012. The text provides for better protections in the event of no-show, in particular for people with reduced mobility, and guarantees against loss of the return flight in the event of absence on the outbound flight. Certain measures target certain practices of low-cost airlines, such as the supplement for seats next to children or the obligation to use an application for boarding passes. With regard to hand luggage, the agreement provides that the companies publish the price for taking a trolley into the cabin, while giving the passenger the possibility of waiving it in exchange for a discount.

Parliament claims victory — In the negotiations on the reform of air passenger rights, a large part of the battle between the Council and the European Parliament focused on the compensation owed by companies in the event of cancellation, delay or denied boarding. Despite opposition from France and a final Franco-German attempt to lower the thresholds, governments were forced to maintain the status quo. Passengers will retain the right to compensation of 250 to 600 euros depending on the duration of the delay and the length of the flight. “The European Parliament promised passengers that their rights would not be reduced and we have not given in,†declared the rapporteur in the European Parliament, Andrey Novakov. “The threshold of 3 hours late for compensation is preserved. Compensation is preserved.†Proposals aimed at facilitating passenger compensation claims – such as the distribution of pre-filled forms or the insertion of a link in an email to submit the claim – were ultimately unsuccessful. Companies will simply be required to provide passengers with clear information on how to make a request.

Suisse

Switzerland says “no†to the ceiling of 10 million inhabitants and saves the agreements with the EU— Swiss voters yesterday rejected by referendum the proposal to set a maximum ceiling of 10 million inhabitants, beyond which agreements on free movement with the EU would fall. 54.8% of voters and 13 cantons rejected the initiative promoted by the far-right UDC party, of which the current President of the Confederation Guy Parmelin is a member. The President of the Commission yesterday had a telephone conversation with Parmelin. “The Swiss people have spoken,†Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X. “The EU and Switzerland share deep ties and a strong partnership. We will continue to work together to modernize and deepen our cooperation for the benefit of our citizens and our businesses.†If the initiative “No to a Switzerland of 10 million†had been approved by referendum, the agreements signed on March 2 would have been called into question.

Digital sovereignty

Anthropic cuts its advanced models to foreigners — On instructions from the American Department of Commerce, the start-up Anthropic urgently suspended access to its two most powerful models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for reasons of “national security†. The directive, received late Friday, is part of the American controls on the export of sensitive technologies and targets foreign nationals, including those employed by the company in the United States. Unable to instantly distinguish users according to their nationality on shared cloud infrastructures, Anthropic has carried out a global deactivation of both. models. Washington justifies its decision by the existence of jailbreak type vulnerabilities “limited and not universal†(a partial bypass flaw which does not open general access to the dangerous functionalities of the model) likely to be exploited for purposes. offensive, particularly in the cyber domain. This is the first time that a border AI model is treated as a strategic asset to which access can be restricted by the American state in the same way as certain advanced chips or defense technologies.

Quid pro quo or ire from Washington? — The suspension would follow a report from Amazon, Anthropic’s first investor, tasked by the government to provide feedback on the security risks concerning this model. Amazon assures that its cybersecurity researchers were able to circumvent Fab 5 restrictions to generate cyberattacks. Anthropic would then have been ordered to correct or cut. The timing raises questions: an IPO is planned in a few days. Furthermore, Anthropic contests the measure. This type of partial vulnerability would concern, to varying degrees, most border models, such as GPT-5.5, which reaches similar capacity levels without. be affected by the restriction Washington’s decision is part of a tightening of relations with Anthropic, designated “supply chain risk†in March then excluded from an agreement between the Pentagon and several AI laboratories in May Irony of the calendar: a few days before the decision, the CEO of Anthropic, Dario Amodei, called. itself to strengthen public authorities to block models deemed dangerous.

Shock and awakening on digital sovereignty — The suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 caused a shock wave well beyond the artificial intelligence ecosystem. For many European observers, the episode marks the end of the illusion of a global and politically neutral AI. Artificial Intelligence strategies were based on the presupposition that cutting-edge American AI would always be widely accessible “Europe is discovering that it is renting its brain to a nation that can unplug it unilaterally†, summarizes Alexandre Tsicopoulos of the Demain sur X Podcast. American models are now being questioned. A European industrial group can now lose access to a tool that has become critical for its competitiveness overnight. The decision has fueled calls to accelerate the emergence of alternatives. European companies, while Mistral is negotiating a fundraising of several billion euros to expand its computing capacities “This development underlines the relevance of the legislation already in place at EU level in terms of cybersecurity and artificial intelligence, in particular the AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act and the NIS2 directive – so many tools to manage precisely this type of risk according to our own rules – declared the spokesperson for the European Commission for technological sovereignty.

Vache sacrée

More money for farmers in the face of the fertilizer crisis –” On Friday June 12, the Commission announced a new package of measures to help farmers cope with rising fertilizer costs caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The EU agricultural reserve will be mobilized again. Last week, the Commission proposed to governments and Parliament an amendment to the 2026 EU budget to allocate an additional €300 million. Thus, the resources that the Commission can mobilize should reach 540 million euros. But Member States will be able to supplement the funds of the agricultural reserve with national aid of up to 200% of the European contribution. The total potential financial support available to farmers thus amounts to 1.5 billion euros. The Commission also proposed some targeted changes to the CAP, including the possibility of using unused resources from the European Agricultural Fund for rural development.

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This is happening today

• Sommet du G7 à Évian

• Conseil Affaires étrangères à Luxembourg

• Intergovernmental Accession Conference with Ukraine, Moldova and Montenegro in Luxembourg

• EU-Egypte Association Council in Luxembourg

• European Parliament: plenary session in Strasbourg (debate on the EU-US tariff agreement; European economic independence; the Omnibus on AI)

• Commission: Commissioner Jørgensen meets IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in Vienna

• Commission: Commissioner Serafin meets the European Chief Prosecutor, Laura CodruÈ›a Kövesi

• European Parliament: President Metsola receives a delegation from the American Congress; chairs the Bureau

• European Parliament: hearing of Commissioners Fitto and Dombrovskis in the Budget and Economic Affairs committees

• European Central Bank: conference on digitalization and innovation in payments

• Eurostat: industrial production in April; data on international merchandise trade in April; employment rate of young graduates in 2025

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