According to the latest federal data analyzed by economist Janis Kluge, Russia’s military spending reached a particularly high level in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the targets initially set in the federal budget.1.
- Military spending stood at 5,900 billion rubles (70 billion euros), compared to 4,500 billion a year earlier (55 billion), an increase of around 30% in one year.
- Most of this increase comes from classified (non-public) expenditure, up 43% year-on-year, which rose from 3,400 (40 billion) to 4,900 billion rubles (60 billion).
- Thus, out of a total of 12,800 billion rubles (150 billion euros) of federal expenditure, 38.2% concerned classified lines. According to the Russian budget law for 2026, around 85% of this spending would be devoted to the military sector.
The finance law provided for a reduction in the war effort, reduced to 6.2% of GDP in 2026, compared to 7.8% in 2025.
- Over this quarter alone, military spending is already equivalent to 2.5% of expected annual GDP, and around 12% of nominal GDP for the period (estimated at 48,400 billion rubles, or around 580 billion euros).
- If these expenditures tend to usually moderate in the second and third quarters (for example, in the case of early payments for arms contracts), a level of 9 to 10% of GDP over the year would be possible if the current pace is maintained.
- According to sources cited by BloombergRussian Finance Ministry and Central Bank officials reportedly warned Vladimir Putin that spending related to the war in Ukraine was on an unsustainable trajectory.2.
This increase could also be explained by a simple accounting exercise: the Ministry of Finance could in fact have postponed to 2026 expenditure initially planned for 2025, in order not to exceed the deficit objective posted last year.
- According to Kluge, several elements could point in this direction, including surprisingly low federal spending in December 2025 and an abnormally low volume of classified spending in the fourth quarter of the same year.
- Bloomberg also noted in January that Russian budgetary spending in December fell by 19% compared to the previous year.3.
