"Is he a genius in the art of the deal or is he talking nonsense?"Donald Trump’s strategy against Iran raises questions, according to a geopolitical scientist

Donald Trump threatened to launch missiles on the Islamic Republic… and on Thursday, June 11, once again, made a complete turnaround by announcing, for the 39th time since the start of the war, a possible agreement with Iran, which Tehran has so far denied. A “very solid framework agreement”, according to the American president, which could be signed as early as the weekend of June 13 and 14 and which would ensure an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while validating the impossibility for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. “The difficulty with Donald Trump is that he takes his desires for reality and that he has lost contact with reality,” analyzes geopolitical scientist Dominique Moà ̄si, special advisor at the Montaigne Institute.

franceinfo: As a specialist, do you still take the trouble to analyze each change of heart of the American president?

Dominique MoïsiA: Yes, it’s fascinating. These are variations on the same theme and each time there is a double interpretation. Is he a genius in the art of dealing or is he talking nonsense? And what interpretation is required today? We don’t know. We can think that his threats of very strong strikes have borne fruit, pushing the Iranians to make some concessions during the negotiations and that an agreement will be announced during the weekend. In this case, Donald Trump will have succeeded in his bet to make the Iranians bend without having to use force again, which he did not want, and which would have caused disorder when the Football World Cup has started, the G7 will be held in Évian and we will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Republic American. And there is another interpretation, which simply consists of saying: he says and does anything. I was in the United States last week. Doubts about the health of the President of the United States are increasing. You have Republicans, like Democrats, who say to you: ‘Has our president gone crazy?’

Despite everything, is there a greater probability today that there will be an agreement?

The difficulty with Donald Trump is that he takes his desires for reality and that he has lost contact with reality. What interests him is the financial dimension of geopolitics.

“A war is expensive. A war brings down the stock market.”

Dominique Moses. geopolitologist, spécial conseiller à l’Institut Montaigne

à franceinfo

A war is not good for the financial interests of Donald Trump and his family. So we can hope that this verbal escalation of the last 48 hours is the start of a real de-escalation on the ground.

What is the response from Iran to these recent declarations from Donald Trump?

Despite all the bad things we can think of the Iranian regime, we must recognize that it knows how to negotiate. Iranian diplomacy is of great subtlety and precision. Do the Iranians consider today that it would be dangerous for them to go too far in the negotiation? That they got some guarantees from Donald Trump? Or do they think, on the contrary, that time is on their side, that Donald Trump does not want to become more involved militarily, and that maintaining the regime is a victory for them? And in this case, what lessons will they learn from this victory? We don’t know. We have on one side a president who is inconsistent and unpredictable, if not inconsistent, and on the other, an Iranian regime which can consider that it has all the cards on its side and go too far in the arrogance of the weak in relation to the strong.