Could Pakistan mediate between Iran and the United States?

Pakistan was requested by Donald Trump to carry out a mission of good offices between the United States and Iran. This is not the first time an American president has made such a request to Islamabad – in the early 1970s, Richard Nixon had Islamabad serve as an intermediary between Washington and Beijing for the official recognition of Communist China, which followed a visit by Kissinger to the Chinese capital.

Why is Pakistan taking part in this exercise? Because it stands to gain more than it stands to lose.

• Firstly, by agreeing to Trump’s request – as it did last year with the deployment of Pakistani troops to Gaza, which was rejected by Israel – Pakistan aims to cultivate trust with the White House. This has already been demonstrated through the resumption of military cooperation in exchange for rare earth metals from Balochistan and an agreement on cryptocurrencies.
• Strengthening ties with the United States allows Pakistan to lessen its heavy dependence on China and reconnect with a country that was a significant partner throughout the Cold War and post-9/11 era for about 15 years, especially in the war in Afghanistan against the Soviets and later the Taliban.
• Islamabad hopes to rekindle the “good old days” when Pakistani officers were trained in the US.

It is also a way for Pakistan to avoid Trump’s criticisms of the war it is currently engaged in Afghanistan – a situation reminiscent of the 1970-1971 period.

• Nixon, at that time, needed Pakistan’s support towards China too much to oppose its actions during the Bengali independence movement.
• By mediating, Pakistan elevates its international prestige, especially in comparison to India, a country that has long been known for such actions under Nehru and currently maintains a passive stance.

Finally, acting as a mediator prevents Pakistan from taking sides in conflicts involving countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia, whom Islamabad aims to maintain good relations with.

• In 2015, Pakistan declined to join the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthi rebels in Yemen to avoid alienating its Shiite population and Iran.
• Pakistan’s partnership with Saudi Arabia, including a mutual defense agreement, has put it in a delicate position vis-à-vis Riyadh’s stance towards Iran, and Islamabad seeks to avoid military entanglements in such situations.

By refraining from aligning with Riyadh’s interests, Pakistan maintains its neutrality and can leverage its mediator role given by Washington.

• Why does Pakistan avoid antagonizing Iran? Both countries share a border where Baloch tribes with separatist sentiments reside.
• In the past, Pakistani tribes have faced attacks from Iranian Baloch fighters, leading Islamabad to suspect Iran’s involvement and respond with targeted strikes.

Furthermore, Pakistan is wary of Iran’s relations with India, fearing encirclement between the two countries. This geopolitical concern drives Pakistan’s efforts to prevent alignment with any emerging conflicts.