French and international economy – Bpifrance Le Lab publishes its analysis of the current macroeconomic context: what are the challenges for French companies in a turbulent geopolitical context?

Paris, June 11, 2026 – Bpifrance Le Lab takes stock of the domestic and international macroeconomic environment in which French SMEs and mid-sized companies currently operate. This analysis reviews the main challenges facing French companies in a turbulent geopolitical context. There is also an analysis of the business financing market.[1].

• The global economic environment is particularly uncertain. By generating a rebound in inflation, the conflict in Iran is hampering rather improving global growth in 2025 despite American customs duties. Forecasting institutes are counting on global activity to slow down slightly in 2026, but the extent of which will depend in fine of the duration and outcome of the conflict in the Middle East. Budgetary room for maneuver to cushion the shock is generally limited. Growth should remain relatively dynamic in the United States, supported by the tech sector, while it would remain more moderate in the euro zone. In emerging zones, despite a revision to the decline linked to the conflict in the Middle East, the growth potential remains significant (Asia and sub-Saharan Africa in particular), although with persistent risks.
• The French economy, which stalled in the first quarter of 2026, would not be spared the consequences of the war in Iran, and in particular the impact on the price of energy. Certain sectors are particularly exposed (services de transport, agriculture, industries énergivores) and the budgetary margins for maneuver to cushion the shock are very weak. In 2026, forecasting institutes are counting at this stage on growth close to that observed in 2025, around +0.8%, but the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East and the future evolution of the price of oil constitute a significant hazard in the scenario. Budgetary consolidation would also affect medium-term growth prospects.
• On the business side, national political uncertainty and weak household demand marked the year 2025 while favoring a wait-and-see attitude in terms of hiring and investments. SMEs with an export activity displayed a more resilient activity than that of non-exporting SMEs, with the potential for international growth remaining high despite geopolitical risks. Bankruptcies remain at a high level but business creations are also very dynamic. The war in the Middle East seems at this stage to have only slightly affected the morale of SME managers, who have only slightly revised downwards their investment intentions and the large majority report sufficient cash flow to absorb the shock. The increase in the cost of energy could also give a boost to green investments, as observed during the energy crisis of 2022. SMEs continue to accelerate the use of AI.
• Business financing conditions have evolved in contrasting ways in 2025:
  • The production of business credit showed an increase (+9% compared to 2024) in a context of continued decline in interest rates, even if they stabilized at the end of the year.
  • On the investment capital side, investments have retreated into the French venture capital and development capital markets.
  • Regarding exports, credit insurance activity increased in 2025 and compensation fell. But 2026 risks being more difficult given the deterioration of the geopolitical situation. The debt situation in Africa is also a point of vigilance.

 

Pour Philippe Mutricy, Director of Studies at Bpifrance“The challenges are certainly numerous, but more than temporary economic difficulties, it is above all the world that is changing before our eyes. Our VSEs, SMEs and ETIs are well equipped to face it, and are resisting quite well overall. The French situation being characterized by degraded budgetary prospects, which contribute to weighing on domestic demand, it is more than ever the time to look for sources of growth internationally.”

 

1. A global environment under tension

 

In 2025, global growth proved more resilient than expecteddespite geopolitical and commercial tensions. Overall, continued disinflation, more favorable financing conditions and an accommodative fiscal stance have supported the global economy, along with a relatively low level of oil prices. World trade has resisted increases in American customs duties rather well. The world’s two main economies remained relatively dynamic. Activity has slowed only slightly in the United States despite the increase in customs duties (+2.2% after +2.8% in 2024), driven in particular by investments in information and communication technologies (ICT), with the development of artificial intelligence. Chinese growth, for its part, reached the target of +5% planned by the authorities, driven by exports, in a context of dynamic industrial production while the domestic market remained sluggish.[2]. In the euro zone, growth has rebounded (+1,4 % après +0,9 %) although with disparate trajectories. In particular, Spanish growth continued to show vigor (+2.8%) while German growth was almost stable (+0.2%), particularly penalized by the weakness of its industrial production.

For 2026, the war in the Middle East is reshuffling the cards of the world economy and weakening the growth scenario. The IMF forecasts global growth at +3.1% in 2026 (i.e. a revision of -0.3 pt compared to a scenario without conflict) after +3.4% in 2025, in a central scenario which assumes a fairly rapid de-escalation of the conflict and a price of oil at around $82 on average over the year. The rise in oil prices is in fact the main economic consequence of the war in the Middle East, linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on infrastructure. Thus, the price of a barrel of Brent rose from $62 on average in December 2025 to a level between $90 and $110 between March 6, 2026 and the end of May ($104 on average over the entire period). On the natural gas side, the impact is less: the reference market price for European countries rose from €28 on average in December 2025 to €49 on average between the beginning of March and the end of May. Thus, if the shock on the price of oil is close to that observed in 2022 during the energy crisis, that on gas is much less marked (130 €/MWh on average between February 25 and December 31, 2022). The energy shock should lead to an increase in global inflationwith a potential impact on monetary policies (interruption of easing or even tightening in certain cases).

Regarding the main economies, the outlook remains favorable in the United States, with growth forecast at least +2% by international institutions (IMF, OECD), in a context where budgetary policy remains very accommodating and where technological investments remain dynamic. In the euro zone, growth is expected to be sluggish, around +1%, with persistence in the heterogeneity of situations within the zone. In China, activity would slow down somewhat in 2026 (target of between +4.5% and +5% by the government, +4.4% according to the IMF): the objectives of development, self-sufficiency and technological domination (AI, humanoid robotics, quantum technologies, etc.), at the heart of the 15^e Five-year plan would support growth in the medium term, notably with strengthened public support. The slowdown in activity would also be observed in other emerging Asian countries, exposed in particular to the war in Iran, even if their growth potential remains significant (+4.9% on average in the region, after +5.4% according to the IMF). The effects of this conflict would be especially visible on the growth of Middle Eastern countries, which would show on average growth of +1.6% in 2026 after +4.2% in 2025 according to the World Bank (i.e. a revision of -2.8 pts compared to the October 2025 forecast). The prospects for other emerging zones are detailed in the analysis note.

The risks surrounding the global macroeconomic scenario are strong. In particular, to date, the outcome of the war in the Middle East is very uncertain. and, therefore, the horizon for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz or the extent of the damage caused to energy infrastructure. Whatever happens, the price of hydrocarbons will be permanently affected. Furthermore, other bearish factors and risks must be taken into account in the analysis of the global economic environment.. First of all, visibility remains reduced regarding the evolution of American customs duties. Despite the Supreme Court’s decision to cancel “reciprocal” customs duties, they remain higher than before the start of 2^e mandate of D. Trump. The additional customs duties of 10% applied to date are also temporary. The financial risk should not be neglected either, particularly in the United States, with valuations remaining high, particularly in Tech, despite a correction since the start of the year. In addition, certain doubts have emerged regarding the quality of assets held by large American fund managers specializing in private credit, reinforcing financial risk.

 

2. In France, the war in Iran raises the risk of a new inflationary shock

 

The global economic context detailed above shows that despite geopolitical and commercial tensions, the global economy had held up rather well until the start of the year with very strong dynamics in several geographies, including in certain parts of Europe. This may explain why exporting SMEs reported a more resilient activity in 2025 than that of non-exporting SMEs.[3]. They also expressed a more favorable outlook for 2026[4]. Certainly, in this uncertain international context, exporting SMEs anticipated a slowdown in their exports to non-EU countries this year, but these were nevertheless expected to be more dynamic than exports to EU countries. The conflict in the Middle East may disrupt these projections established at the start of the year even if they do not fundamentally change the observation that international remains a powerful lever for diversification and acceleration for companies.

Regarding the growth scenario for France in 2026, companies will face higher inflation and weakened growth with the war in Iran. The extent of the impact is, however, very uncertain, depending on the duration of the conflict and the evolution of the price of oil. The recently published macroeconomic scenarios expect growth of around 0.8% but under the assumption of a rapid de-escalation of the conflict, resulting in a Brent price of around USD 80-85 on average over the year 2026. Growth would, however, be much lower if the conflict persists and Brent settled sustainably above 100 USD, between 0.3% and 0.6% depending on the scenarios. Even if the annual average growth could remain positive, taking into account the growth achievements at the end of the 1^is quarter (0.4%), the most adverse scenarios do not exclude the possibility of quarters of slightly negative growth during the year. Note that the resurgence of inflation, if it increases, could influence the monetary policy of the ECB, forcing it to increase its key rates. However, long rates are already under upward pressure due to the degraded situation of public finances. Budgetary consolidation also constitutes a downward factor in the French growth scenario in the short and medium term.

The economic and financial environment for businesses is therefore becoming more complicated, even if the Bpifrance Le Lab-Rexecode barometer of 2^e quarter 2026 indicates a limited impact at this stage of the conflict in the Middle East on the outlook of managers, particularly with regard to cash flow and investments. The sectors most directly exposed to conflict in the Middle East are transport services, agriculture and fishing (high share of fuel in their costs)[5]. On the industry side, despite efficiency gains since 2022, chemicals and cement/glassworks remain sensitive to the increase in the price of petroleum products; several industries are also very dependent on gas, which has however increased much less than during the energy crisis of 2022. This shock comes in an already degraded context for these energy-intensive industries, characterized by a level of production that is still low compared to that observed historically. It also comes in a context where the manufacturing industry more generally shows signs of loss of speedincluding a slowdown in net factory openings according to the state’s industrial barometer).

However, we must not obscure the existence of positive dynamics at work within the French economy.. On the industry side, the green and technological sectors are clearly doing well, recording the most dynamic net creation of factories according to the Bpifrance Industry Observatory. More generally, if business failures are at a high level, business creations have reached a new historical record in 2025, despite a complex economic environment, with nearly 1.2 million new businesses registered. Furthermore, French companies continue to invest in AI, in order to increase their productivity: for example, 13% of industrial VSEs/SMEs declared at the end of 2025 to have regular use of generative AI compared to 3% a year previously. This analytical note goes into more detail about these different dynamics.

 

3. Business credit production increased in 2025

 

Business credit production increased (+9%) in 2025 compared to 2024 in a context of continued decline in interest rates. The conditions for granting credit remained stable in 2025, the proportion of companies declaring difficulties in financing their investments has stabilized at a low level according to the survey of VSEs and SMEs by Bpifrance Le Lab[6] (only 11% of SMEs surveyed reported difficulties in financing their investments through banks and credit institutions in November 2025). The rate differentials between companies benefiting from the most and least favorable credit conditions also remain stable in 2025.

French banks have generally posted good results in 2025: the main French banks experienced an increase in their net banking income and their net income, despite the exceptional IS surcharge provided for by the 2025 finance law. The year 2025 saw a recovery in the net interest margin, the cost of assets having decreased more than the return on assets. If the share of non-performing SME loans increased by 34 basis points in September 2025 (compared to September 2024), to 4.83%[7]French banks maintain high solvency ratios that exceed regulatory requirements.

 

4. The French private equity market is declining in 2025

 

In the French venture capital market, investments fell by −5 %[8] en 2025, s’établissant à 7,4 Md€. The number of companies invested is also decreasing (−15%). Investments are driven upwards by the software (including AI), life sciences and technology sectors. Conversely, investments in greentech and fintech are trending downward. France ranks second in Europe in terms of amounts raised by startups, behind the United Kingdom (€20.0 billion) and almost on a par with Germany (€7.2 billion).

On the development capital market, the amounts invested are also down in 2025 (3,0 Md€[9]or −24% compared to 2024), as well as the number of operations (558 companies invested, or −17% compared to 2024).

Raising French investment funds is difficult in 2025Â: although collections are up +15%, at €28.9 billion[10]a significant portion of these raisings (€5.9 billion) is attributable to continuation funds, vehicles raised by fund managers with the aim of extending the holding period of one or more of their holdings which they believe can be better valued later. Excluding continuation funds, fundraising is down slightly by 2% compared to 2024. The average duration for raising a fund has increased and reached a record level of 23.6 months in 2025, after 20.9 in 2024.

 

5. Despite a positive outlook for the global credit insurance market in 2026, strong turbulence is expected

 

After a reduction in compensation in 2025 according to the Berne Union, insurers were optimistic about the evolution of short-term operationswith in particular an expected increase in trade within the framework of bilateral agreements, or even favorable prospects in certain sectors (defense, energy transition, critical minerals).

On the other hand, credit insurers could face an increase in claims in 2026in a context of increasing geopolitical risk at the global level and higher hydrocarbon prices.

 

Find the complete study via the following link:

https://lelab.bpifrance.fr/note-danalyse-macroeconomique-2026/

 

Méthodologie de l’étude

This note, produced by the team of economists at Bpifrance Le Lab, is mainly based on the analysis of macroeconomic, cyclical, sectoral and financial data published by national and international public institutes (statistical institutes, central banks, international organizations, etc.) but also private suppliers of data. The analysis is also based on the study of statistical and economic reports, economic notes, and various expert publications. The Bpifrance Le Lab barometers are also widely used (recurring indicators and thematic focuses). These surveys, carried out among thousands of managers, make it possible to collect their feelings on the ground and to obtain an analysis focused on VSE-SMEs and ETIs, at the heart of French economic activity. All studies and data have been selected, compared and put into perspective with the aim of providing an overview of the French and international economic context but also an overview of the main issues and points of vigilance for VSEs, SMEs and ETIs.

 

[1] This exercise is based on information available at 1^is June 2026.

[2] See Bpifrance Le Lab, Why does China’s overcapacity threaten European industry?February 2026

[3] See Bpifrance Le Lab, Baromètre export « Au-delà des frontières – Les PME et l’export en 2025 » February 2026

[4] See Bpifrance Le Lab and Rexecode, Baromètre « Trésorerie, investissement et croissance des PME au T1 2026 »February 2026. A company is said to be an exporter if it has exported at least once in the last five years.

[5] See Bpifrance Le Lab, Conflict in the Middle East: what impact for the French economy?avril 2026

[6] 80^e enquête de conjoncture TPE-PME

[7] High Financial Stability Council, Annual Report 2025

[8] Barometers EY du capital-risque 2025

[9] France Invest, Activity of French private equity players 2025

[10] France Invest, Activity of French private equity players 2025