Foreign ministers from the world’s largest democratic powers are gathering near Paris starting on March 26 against a backdrop of historic geopolitical and economic tensions on a global scale. The meeting is set to be highly charged. At a time when the geopolitical and economic situation is shifting into an increasingly dark unknown, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) have deemed it necessary to come together from Thursday, March 26, to Friday, March 27, to discuss the topics shaping international current affairs. The political leaders of Germany, Canada, the United States, France, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom will convene at the Vaux-de-Cernay Abbey, located 50 kilometers from Paris. The agenda for this meeting will include discussions on “the major global imbalances,” according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, such as the soaring prices, the war in the Middle East, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. During these two days of exchanges, the various foreign ministers will primarily discuss the conflict in the Middle East, the outcome of which still remains uncertain. One of the main objectives of the meeting, according to the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is “to address the major global imbalances which largely explain the level of tension and rivalry we are witnessing, with very concrete consequences for our fellow citizens.” The G7 ministers will be accompanied by five representatives from partner countries, namely Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Korea, India, and Ukraine, as well as the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Odile Renaud-Basso. Kaja Kallas, the head of European diplomacy, will also be present at the meeting in the hope of participating in a strategic dialogue between the European Union (EU) and Japan. The war in Ukraine, which has been raging for over four years, will also be on the agenda. The G7 is expected to be an opportunity for the allies to reaffirm their support for Volodymyr Zelensky and the “Ukrainian resistance,” according to Jean-Noël Barrot. European officials, concerned that Washington may pressure Kyiv to reach an unfavorable agreement, plan to address this issue. They intend to collectively urge Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, to outline the risks of such a scenario and advocate for stricter sanctions against Russia. If the meeting officially begins on Thursday, March 26 in the early afternoon, not all members will be present immediately, as Marco Rubio plans to delay his arrival until Friday, March 27, while the United States will hold a central role in these discussions. The unpredictability of Washington, both commercially and militarily, affects the tensions crystallizing the relationships among the various member states. The allies hope to gain more clarity on American and Israeli strategies in the Middle East, as well as the existence of significant diplomatic channels, in order to outline the end of the conflict. The meeting will also provide an opportunity to discuss the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been partially closed since February 28 by Iranian forces and through which normally 20% of global oil traffic passes. The conflict seems far from resolution, despite a fifteen-point peace plan proposed by Donald Trump to Iran, under the auspices of Pakistan. The Strait of Hormuz will continue to be at the center of discussions this week. France and the United Kingdom will bring together around thirty countries in the coming days to form a coalition aimed at securing this strategic and vital maritime passage for many countries. In line with this, Roland Lescure, the Minister of Economy, announced a “G7 finance, energy, central bank” meeting on Monday, March 30, with the aim of discussing the situation in the Middle East. The escalating warning signs The war in Iran, presented by Donald Trump as “a minor detour” that would “soon end,” has been dragging on for over four weeks and, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), is leading to the worst energy crisis in decades. The “special finance-focused G7” meeting takes place in a context of governmental fragility reflecting a tangible concern for the country. This fragility was particularly highlighted by the misstep of Roland Lescure, who on Tuesday, March 24, spoke of a “new oil shock” before expressing regret the following day. “In a global context marked by the escalation of conflicts, the rise of cross-cutting threats such as organized crime and drug trafficking, and the fragmentation of the global economic order, France intends to emphasize dialogue,” stated the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs. In a world shaken by disruptions, the government advocates for the emergence of “a new international order […] to achieve a more balanced and fair system, under the banner of renewed multilateralism.” In parallel, Donald Trump is pleased and believes that the conflict could last “four to six weeks.”
