After a month of war, there is still no respite. Launched by American and Israeli bombings on Iran on February 28th, the conflict in the Middle East continues. As retaliations to these strikes, Tehran has been relentlessly targeting the Hebrew state, as well as Gulf countries allied with Washington. At the start of hostilities, President Donald Trump had mentioned “four to five weeks” of operations to eliminate “imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime” against the “American people.”
27 days later, the deadline set by the Republican is rapidly approaching. The Strait of Hormuz is partially blocked, oil prices are soaring, and American opinion is skeptical… The negative consequences of the US entry into the war are mounting. While the Israeli-American strikes have eliminated the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the mullahs’ regime remains in power. Weakened, they continue to target the region’s energy infrastructure, destabilizing the global economy. This uncomfortable situation for Donald Trump, who is hoping at all costs to achieve a significant victory against Tehran.
Donald Trump says he is ready to “unleash hell” in Iran.
This Thursday, March 26th, the American president escalated his threats even further. He stated he is ready to “unleash hell” in the event that Iran “makes another miscalculation.” Since the beginning of the week, the Republican administration has discussed a “15-point plan” to end the war. The text was transmitted to Iranian leaders through Pakistan, which maintains cordial relations with both parties. “The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange’,” wrote Donald Trump on his Truth Social network this Thursday. “They are ‘begging’ us to reach an agreement, which they should do since they have been militarily defeated.”
What does this draft compromise contain? Among the main demands, the US specifically requires assurance that Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon, the destruction of their nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan, and the surrender of their 440 kilos of enriched uranium still hidden in the country. Washington also demands the end of Tehran’s support for Islamist proxy groups like Lebanese Hezbollah or Palestinian Hamas, as well as a drastic reduction in the regime’s ballistic arsenal, limited to a purely defensive role.
According to a source cited by the Iranian Tasnim agency, the regime responded on Wednesday to Washington’s proposal. As usual in international matters, Donald Trump maintains a certain ambiguity regarding his true willingness to reach an agreement with the Islamic Republic. “I don’t know if we will manage to sign an agreement, (…), [the Iranian leaders] are truly sick,” he reiterated this Thursday during a press conference on the sidelines of the Council of Ministers. “What is obviously difficult in the American strategy is knowing what is bluff and what is a real determination to go all the way,” explains Maxime Lefebvre, former diplomat and professor of international relations at ESCP.
A possible ground operation is being considered.
Engaged in talks earlier this year with Iran, the United States have ultimately opted for military intervention. It is difficult to imagine that under these conditions, the mullahs’ regime – as long as they hold on – will readily accept the significant concessions sought by the American side. The possibility of a temporary agreement to suspend the confrontation in order to organize discussions could be an intermediate solution. “At a minimum, a ceasefire and negotiation could be possible, but it’s hard to see how we could agree on all conditions from the start,” adds Maxime Lefebvre.
If Washington and Tehran fail to reach an agreement, the American administration believes they can still increase pressure on Iran, including through a ground operation. This Thursday, the American media Axios reported that the Pentagon is seriously considering delivering a “fatal blow” to the Iranian regime. Several possibilities are being explored by the government in this regard. The American military could attempt to seize the Iranian island of Kharg in the Persian Gulf, through which about 90% of the country’s oil exports pass. Other pieces of Iranian land in this area are in the sights of the American forces, with the goal of regaining control of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier in the week, the New York Times reported that several thousand paratroopers were being deployed in the Gulf by the military.
In the face of American declarations, Iran is trying to deter any ground intervention on its territory. “The enemy must know that a ground war will be more dangerous, more costly, and irreparable for it,” warned Ali Jahanshahi, the commander of the land forces of the Iranian army, as reported by the semi-official Isna agency. “All enemy movements at the borders are monitored and we are prepared for any eventuality.”
By making such a choice, Donald Trump would further cement his ideological break with non-use of military force abroad, originally one of the cornerstones of his foreign policy shared with the entire MAGA base (“Make America Great Again”). He would then be taking very large risks, both strategically and militarily. “Once we attack the territorial integrity of Iran, with ground deployments, it is clear that it would be a new escalation, very difficult to de-escalate,” points out Maxime Lefebvre.
