In a few days, the rise in tensions in the Gulf has been enough to trigger a reaction in global markets. Oil prices are on the rise, investors are concerned, and states are closely monitoring the situation. At the heart of the tensions: the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which a crucial part of the world’s oil passes.
Should we see this as the beginning of a new oil shock, or simply another crisis in a structurally unstable region? In the radio show “Je pense donc j’agis” on RCF Notre Dame, Melchior Gormand talks with General Dominique Trinquand, author of the book “D’un monde à l’autre,” and Frédéric Encel, HDR doctor in geopolitics, author of the book “La guerre mondiale n’aura pas lieu.”
A crisis that shakes markets more than supplies
The first consequence of this crisis is immediate: oil prices react strongly. Each tension in the Gulf leads to an increase, fueled by uncertainty and perceived risks on maritime routes. But according to specialists, the extent of the phenomenon needs to be put into perspective. “We’re not in 1973,” emphasizes Frédéric Encel, noting that the market is now much more diversified and less dependent on a single region. The same goes for Dominique Trinquand, who emphasizes European evolution: “Europe no longer depends on Gulf oil in the same way,” thanks to diversified sources of supply.
However, markets remain extremely sensitive. Ship owners hesitate to cross a more dangerous area, insurers raise their rates, and investors anticipate risks. The result is a rapid rise in prices, sometimes disconnected from the reality of stocks. “Markets react in seconds,” stresses Dominique Trinquand, pointing out that volatility is amplified by algorithms and political announcements. For Frédéric Encel, this dynamic is enough to create “a mini oil shock,” without necessarily leading to a major energy crisis. In other words, what worries today is not so much the lack of oil as the fear of a potential blockade.
A strong geopolitical tension, but no global shift
While the crisis is serious, it does not mean an entry into a world war. According to Frédéric Encel, the conditions are simply not met: “There are no military blocs today comparable to those of the two world wars.” On the international stage, major powers proceed cautiously. The United States intervenes, but without total commitment. China, on the other hand, remains in the background and observes carefully. “It’s counting points,” analyzes Dominique Trinquand, assessing American capabilities and their room for maneuver.
In this context, oil becomes a strategic tool among others, used to influence the balance of power without necessarily triggering a direct conflict. Moreover, the role of the Gulf is evolving. “We’re not just talking about oil and gas anymore,” recalls Dominique Trinquand, mentioning the development of other sectors such as fertilizers, aluminum, or industrial components. This diversification reinforces the region’s importance in the global economy.
From a European perspective, the strategy remains cautious. It is about securing supplies while avoiding military escalation. According to Frédéric Encel, France maintains “a coherent position,” based on respect for international law and regional stability. Finally, there remains a factor of unpredictability: American unpredictability. The geopolitician refers to a policy guided by an assumed “mercantilism,” where decisions respond first to economic interests, contributing to global uncertainty.
