Armenians began voting on Sunday for legislative elections as a test of the population’s support for the geopolitical reorientation initiated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, who turned towards the West to the great displeasure of Russia.
Armenia and Russia, linked by two centuries of history within the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union, are officially still allies. But since the pro-Western color revolution of 2018, which resulted in the incarceration of a certain number of pro-Russian personalities and hostile positions taken towards Moscow by the new Armenian authorities, the rag is burning between the two countries.
Azerbaijan’s recapture by force of the Karabakh enclave, which Russia did not prevent, widened the gap, with Yerevan increasing its reproaches towards Moscow and accentuating the turn of the Armenian authorities towards the European Union and the United States.
At the end of May, American President Donald Trump gave his “complete and total” support to Nikol Pashinian. Russia has openly warned Armenia, recalling that the rapprochement of Ukraine with the European Union had been at the origin of the problems of this country, confronted with the Russian army since February 2022.
Beyond the relationship with Moscow, Sunday’s vote comes after years of profound upheaval in Armenia since Nikol Pashinian came to power following demonstrations in 2018.
This small country with a Christian majority in the Caucasus, facing the historic hostility of a Turkey that denies the Armenian genocide in 1915, is still in shock from its military defeat against the Turkish-speaking Azerbaijani enemy in 2020 and from the ethnic cleansing of Karabakh in 2023, which caused the exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians from this mountainous territory disputed for decades. While 19 leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh were sentenced to very heavy sentences, in a parody of justice, by Baku.
Nikol Pashinian, a 51-year-old former journalist, presented this election as a choice between a lasting, albeit controversial, peace with Baku, and a return to war – an alternative contested by the opposition.
– Mutual resentment –
Mr. Pashinian had criticized Moscow for not having provided assistance to Armenia during the 2020 war. Russia had deployed peacekeeping forces in Karabakh, but had not intervened directly.
Mr. Pashinian froze Armenian participation in a regional alliance headed by Moscow and sought to strengthen ties with Brussels and Washington, even going so far as to mention a potential accession of his country to the EU, despite its good relations with Azerbaijan and its non-recognition of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh.
A possibility considered by Russia as Western interference in its territory.
“Everything that is happening in Ukraine now (…) How did it all start? By Ukraine’s attempt to join the EU,” warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in May, in comments that sounded like a threat. Ukraine, in 2014, was actually preparing to sign a simple association agreement with the European Union.
Russia is Armenia’s main trading partner and a key market for its agricultural and textile exports. Many Armenians live and work in Russia and Yerevan is dependent on Moscow for arms and energy supplies.
First retaliatory measure: Russia banned the import of a series of Armenian agricultural products, causing concern in Yerevan.
The Kremlin was also accused of seeking to influence the vote, while by organizing a summit with Armenia, one month before the legislative elections, Brussels provided significant support to Pashinian.
– European support –
Nikol Pashinian, however, affirms that he does not wish to break with Moscow. “We have never had, do not have and will never intend to harm Russia’s interests,” he argued.
However, the electoral campaign took on the air of a fight for the geopolitical future of Armenia.
Mr. Pashinian went so far as to assure that a “catastrophic war” with Azerbaijan could take place if his party lost the majority.
His main competitor, Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, warned against any “reckless rush” towards the West. “Russia is and will remain our strategic partner and our main economic partner,” he said.
The Europeans, for their part, hardly hide their wish to see Nikol Pashinian win, and came to support the EU-Armenia partnership during a summit in Yerevan at the beginning of May, supporting investments in this essential area for the transport of hydrocarbons.
The Prime Minister’s Civil Contract party is leading in the polls, but the political system is very fragmented. In total, 19 parties and blocs are vying for the 101 seats in Parliament.
Nikol Pashinian’s democratic record is also at stake.
Eight years after coming to power on a promise to dismantle Armenia’s post-Soviet oligarchic system, he faces growing criticism.
Armenia is drifting “from populism towards authoritarian methods of governance,” says independent analyst Gevorg Poghosyan.
However, for many Armenians, the opposition remains associated with Russian influence and oligarchs.
Armen Pogossyan, 77, president of a consumer association, said on the eve of the vote that he was still considering who to vote for, while assuring that it would not be for the Prime Minister.
“The first task is that he is no longer there,” he declared, blaming Mr. Pashinian for the loss of Karabakh and his attitude towards the refugees.
Garik Petrossyan, a 31-year-old IT specialist, planned to vote for the outgoing government, for “the independence of Armenia.”
With AFP
Photo : Max Sivaslian
