This has been the leitmotif of the Chinese authorities for several months: Beijing accuses Tokyo of wanting to establish a “new militarism” and establishes a parallel with the warlike imperialism of the 1930s-1940s, by reproaching Japan for the deployment of offensive weapons and the increase in its military capabilities. The exchange of arms rebounded last weekend in Singapore during the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual forum devoted to defense issues in the Asia-Pacific.
Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi slammed China for its accusations: “ There is a country that has a huge arsenal of nuclear weapons and strategic bombers. Japan has neither. And yet, it is in Japan that the label of “new militarism” is stuck. Isn’t that strange? »Specialist on Japan and head of research on the archipelago at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Céline Pajon analyzes Chinese tactics, recalls Japan’s security challenges and details how Tokyo is in the process of implementing a new defense strategy.
Are the accusations brandished by China of a “new militarism” on the part of Japan founded in your opinion?
These accusations are part of a strategy to denigrate Japan on the regional and international scene. If Tokyo is carrying out ambitious defense reforms, in reality it is only responding to a very degraded security environment, with growing threats from China, North Korea and Russia. Japan’s offensive capabilities remain limited and their use strictly regulated by the Constitution and legislation. Finally, it must be remembered that China’s defense budget represents more than four times that of current Japan.
What is China seeking by raising these criticisms?
Sino-Japanese relations have been particularly tense since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [PLD, conservatrice, ndlr] indicated that the self-defense forces could support an American intervention in the event of a military crisis around Taiwan. Beijing deliberately conflates the diplomatic firmness of the head of government with her project to modernize military capabilities in order to discredit Japan and impose the narrative of a country returning to aggressive militarism. This cognitive war, however, missed its target, with Beijing having largely failed to share this reading with its partners, despite intense lobbying.
With her comments on Taiwan, is Sanae Takaichi following in the footsteps of her predecessor Shinzo Abe who wanted a Japan capable of coming to the aid of its allies or partners?
Quite. When Takaichi says that a naval blockade in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a “threat to Japan’s survival”, she is referring to the 2015 peace and security legislation, proposed by Shinzo Abe, according to which this qualification could justify the use of Japanese forces in support of American forces. Takaichi is only formulating what was already accepted in strategic circles, but this first mention of such a scenario by a head of government in a public forum gave his words an unprecedented scope.
Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said Sunday that Japan was “determined” to play a new role in the Asia-Pacific, that it would “continuously develop its defense capabilities.” Is Japan changing its defense strategy?
This is less a sudden change in strategy than an acceleration of a trend that has been at work for more than ten years. In 2015, Shinzo Abe had important reforms adopted allowing Japan, under certain conditions, to resort to the exercise of collective self-defense. It was a first turning point. 2022, the war in Ukraine played a catalytic role. It made the possibility of a similar coup in East Asia very concrete and strained relations with Moscow. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida saw it as a possible precedent for Asia. of the defense budget to reach 2% of GDP and the acquisition of counterattack capabilities The new Prime Minister Takaichi is part of this continuity, with the objective of increasing defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and revising the main strategic documents of the archipelago.
At the same time, Japan is increasingly seeking to assert itself as a security player in its own right on the international scene. Its defense industry is now authorized, and even encouraged, to export military equipment and technologies, in particular via joint development programs, but also to contribute to strengthening the capacities of its partners.
Do the defense agreement with the Philippines and the transfer of Japanese boats and planes to the Philippine army illustrate this change?
The rapprochement between Tokyo and Manila is particularly spectacular and illustrates an effort to diversify Japan’s strategic partnerships, aiming to counterbalance Chinese influence and encourage the maintenance of American engagement in Asia. The defense agreement between the two countries notably allowed an unprecedented participation of the Japanese self-defense forces in the Philippine Balikatan exercises last month, alongside the United States, with the deployment of around 1,400 soldiers. Furthermore, the transfers of ships and aircraft contribute to strengthening Philippine maritime capabilities in the face of Chinese pressure in the South China Sea, while further opening the Philippine market to the Japanese defense industry.
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