War in Ukraine: “Drones are now responsible for 80% of losses”, a development “which puts the Russians in difficulty”, estimates Guillaume Ancel

Is the balance of power changing? Ukraine responded on Wednesday with a large drone attack against military sites in Saint Petersburg, after Russian strikes which left 23 dead the day before. “In military terms, these strikes on Saint Petersburg, Vladimir Putin’s favorite city, are a boomerang, […] “he’s having a comeback in his face,” said former officer and essayist Guillaume Ancel, guest this Thursday on the Public Senate morning show. The moment was carefully chosen: the city’s economic forum, a sort of “Russian Davos”, opened the same day.

A way of weakening the Russian head of state while he seeks to reassure economic circles. “For him, it’s a terrible slap in the face, a political humiliation,” analyzes Guillaume Ancel. Especially since the images of the column of smoke emanating from the country’s second city are likely to make the conflict visible and give food for thought to the internal opposition.

“His greatest fear is that all the frustrations he has created in Russia, including in his own circle, will result in an attempt to eliminate him,” continues the author of the book “Little Lessons on War.” However, Putin is gambling with his life on the success of this operation and he is not succeeding. »The recent strengthening of the Russian leader’s personal security, the details of which CNN and the Financial Times have revealed, has been interpreted in this sense by many observers.

Drones “replace” artillery

The response is in any case revealing of Ukraine’s new deployment capabilities. “The Ukrainians are no longer waiting for other countries to come and fight with them,” explains Guillaume Ancel. They have developed, with European funding, a real capacity to strike the enemy in the heart.” With this in mind, drones play a key role. Ukraine used 4.5 million in 2025 and plans to produce more than 7 million this year.

“Now, it is estimated that drones are responsible for around 80% of losses on the battlefield,” specifies Guillaume Ancel, who already sees them as a “replacement” of artillery, pending their full autonomy. Enough to put Russia under new pressure, the Ukrainian army seeking to saturate the opposing defenses with a massive shipment of low quality equipment, very inexpensive to produce. “This is a major development which puts the Russians in great difficulty, because Russia is 28 times larger than Ukraine. Protecting this territory is almost impossible,” despite “very sophisticated and developed” anti-aircraft defense systems, judges Guillaume Ancel.

On this technology, “the two protagonists are progressing at lightning speed,” he observes. Ukraine can particularly count on numerous specialized start-ups, grouped around large industrialists.

Dassault et les géants français « complètement dépassés »

A strategic turning point that the French army was unable to achieve. This is at least the opinion of the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Fabien Mandon, who deplored during a hearing in the Senate in mid-May the risk of French “dropping out”, particularly in the production of drones. Too slow, too expensive: the French industry is not up to the task in this field, he regretted. “Yes, and he is responsible for it,†Guillaume Ancel tackles today, for whom “if Western armies are very behind on drones, it is firstly because their air forces are led by pilots, like General Fabien Mandon, who cannot accept this intellectual revolution.”

As a result, according to him, the giants of the French military industry are “completely overwhelmed”, starting with Dassault, whose drones are offered at too high a price compared to the market. “The real challenge for us is no longer to entrust production to a single manufacturer, it is to entrust it to a consortium of European manufacturers who have the necessary size to invest very quickly and above all to manufacture at lightning speed a drone which, every three months, will be obsolete,” he concludes.