No specific information
“Here, obviously, the targets in question do not require specific intelligence, since they were fixed“, underlines the researcher from the Center for Security and Defense Studies. “Ukraine was able to choose, apart from any other form of constraint that might have existed, the moment of the strike and even the time of the strike“.
Faced with the announced success of the Ukrainian mission, Alain De Neve does not hide his astonishment regarding the Russian defense systems. “It has always been one of the great unknowns, a great mystery in the Russian defensive system”he points. “We saw this particularly when there were strikes which hit the outskirts of the Kremlin… We wonder where the anti-aircraft defense systems have gone“.
For the expert, it is difficult to estimate, today, the state of the defense systems put in place by Russia, as well as their relative effectiveness in protecting the Russian people. “Inevitably, there are always holes in the racket, in any defensive system, no matter how elaborate. But despite everything, it raises a lot of questions. We will have to see what Russia’s speech will be a posteriori“.
Top Ukrainian commander predicts ‘turning point in war within six to nine months’
A response planned?
Faced with the message sent, the Russian response should not be a surprise. For Alain De Neve, however, any element of response would first be part of a more general context of the conflict. “Russia is capable of renewing itself quite quickly, already for several years. In recent months, the pace has been particularly sustained, on both sides, each within the limits of its means. Russia has intensified its strikes, in general, not simply in response to certain strikes allegedly carried out by Ukraine“.
To explain this, the researcher cites several elements, starting with the bogging down of the Russian army in its process of invasion of Ukraine, as well as Ukraine’s recovery of certain territories. “The only effective lever, for Putin, are these ballistic systems, these air strikes, by aircraft.” With a clear objective: “Ensure that Ukraine exhausts its stock of anti-aircraft defense systems as much as possible“.
If this strategy seems accepted for the moment on the Russian side, Alain Snow nevertheless raises the question: how far will Vladimir Putin go? “Internally, there are calls from certain Russian financial experts who are raising alarms. The war will not be sustainable in the long term… In a way, Putin is stuck in this economy that he established.”
“The question is when Putin could find himself cornered, whether internationally, externally or because of his war in Ukraine. What would be the strategy in this case? ?“.
