Defense: the military programming law “necessary” to best prepare for “the possibility of a shock”, says General Olivier Kempf

It is an “absolutely necessary” text, believes General Olivier Kempf, associate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, when he discusses the bill. update of the military programming law (LPM) whose examination in committee begins this Tuesday, June 2 in the Senate. Despite a context of budgetary constraints, the government wants to extend the defense budget by 36 billion by 2030. A sum still below the stakes for the senators who wish to increase the amount to 50 billion.

Ammunition, planes, frigates, the sinews of war 

In an uncertain geopolitical context since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the needs in ammunition and military equipment have increased. While the 2025 NATO summit increased the defense spending objective of member countries to 3.5% of GDP, this new budgetary programming should make it possible to move towards this objective by the next decade. : “We are going to move to 2.5%, but it is only a step, in any case this step remains insufficient compared to the objective of 3.5% of GDP”, explains General Olivier Kempf.

Furthermore, the new LPM must make it possible to restore national capabilities to prepare them for a long-term conflict. As observed in Ukraine, strengthening ammunition stocks is identified as a priority sector. “The rate of ammunition consumption, when you are in a fairly intense conflict, exceeds all the estimates we had before,” recalls Olivier Kempf.

Beyond ammunition, the LPM should make it possible to purchase 30 Rafales and three frigates. “At the turn of the 1990s we had 270 planes lined up in our arsenal, today we are at 170 or 140. We are really below the necessary requirement,” notes Olivier Kempf. The latter also recalls that the French navy currently has fewer first-rate frigates than Italy.

An LPM to prepare for the “possibility of a shock”

Concretely, these elements must make it possible to prepare as best as possible for the “possibility of a shock”, explains Olivier Kempf, considering that it is “possible that Russia will come to test the cohesion of the alliance”. As part of the war in Ukraine, several Russian drones fell on the territory of NATO and European Union countries such as in Romania on May 29. In this context, Olivier Kempf considers it essential to strengthen “the major mechanisms of collective alliances”, especially at a time when the strategic relationship with the United States is being called into question.