The war against Iran could open a new phase for Turkey in the Middle East. Ankara seeks to take advantage of the regional upheaval without becoming directly involved in the conflict.
Turkey has stayed away from the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. Unlike Qatar or Pakistan, it has not established itself as a central mediator, but it has not been directly criticized by Washington either.
This cautious posture corresponds to a Turkish diplomatic tradition: staying out of major global conflicts while seeking to exploit power vacuums. A member of NATO, Turkey nevertheless maintains a very autonomous foreign policy.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also trying to preserve his relations with Donald Trump, while closely monitoring the rapprochement between Washington and Israel. In Ankara, some are worried about a possible Israeli desire for regional domination, particularly in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey has a large defense industrial base and a powerful army within NATO. It seeks to strengthen its role in Syria, Libya, the Muslim world and the Turkish-speaking area, while improving its relations with Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia.
The war in Iran offered Erdogan room for domestic maneuver. While international attention was focused on Tehran, Ankara continued its pressure against the opposition, in particular against the CHP and several political figures critical of power.
Turkey is also working on several strategic issues: a possible agreement with the PKK, a Kurdish organization classified as terrorist by Ankara, Washington and the European Union, a rapprochement with Armenia, the balance between support for Ukraine and dialogue with Russia, as well as the reconstruction of a strong Syrian state.
For the moment, Ankara seems to be waiting for the regional balance of power to evolve. American pressure to extend the Abraham Accords to other countries, including Turkey, raises questions. Ankara has long asserted that appeasement with Israel would depend on the end of the war in Gaza and a political horizon for the Palestinians.
The war in Iran could therefore strengthen Turkey, but its impact will also depend on upcoming political developments in Jerusalem, Ankara and Washington.
