While the war in Iran is already driving up the price of fuel, another key consumable for thermal cars is finding itself under pressure. Between the announced shortage and more expensive oil changes, the crisis hides a much more insidious risk.
You are already monitoring the price of a liter at the pump. With the
war in Irananother item of expenditure is however starting to slip. Not on the gas station receipt, but on the mechanic’s invoice. A discreet consumable, essential to any thermal engine, finds itself caught in the geopolitical turmoil.
This is theengine oilespecially the most modern synthetic lubricants. Manufacturers, distributors and garage networks are already talking about supply tensions and unprecedented price increases. A brutal movement, well beyond the usual variations observed on this very technical market. And for the thermal carsthe bill could quickly exceed the simple annual oil change. Electric models are outside this new zone of turbulence.
How the war in Iran is straining the motor oil market
The conflict over Iran is disrupting a key passage for world oil: the Strait of Hormuz. The crude oils used to produce Group III base oils for modern lubricants pass through this maritime corridor. When these flows contract or become more expensive, the impact is felt very quickly on the price of the container. In the wholesale market, distributors increased by more than $5 per gallon, or €4.60. The increases do not only come from crude: additives, transport, packaging and logistics also see their costs soar.
The most exposed products are very fluid oils
0W‑20, 0W‒16 or mother 0W‒8. These viscosities have become widespread on recent engines to reduce consumption and CO2 emissions. Lubrication associations, in Europe as in the United States, speak of the risk of engine oil shortage for this summer. They estimate that the availability of certain references could remain degraded for part of 2026 if the conflict lasts. Some analysts suggest, in the most tense scenarios, a drop in availability of close to 40% for some grades.
Thermal cars, electric cars: one more vulnerability revealed by the crisis
For drivers, the first consequence will be a
draining more expensive and sometimes more complicated to program. Some workshops are already afraid of not receiving oils approved by Toyota, Volkswagen, Renault or Stellantis. The temptation can then be strong to use a lubricant considered “approximate”, but not strictly compliant. However, on turbo engines, hybrid engines or those equipped with particle filters, a bad grade can cause overheating and clogging. A detail that changes everything for the longevity of the engine, but also for the manufacturer’s warranty.
THE electric cars stay away from this turmoil, because they do not use engine oil. Without pistons or valves to spray with oil, these models escape maintenance which has become very dependent on oil crises. Thermal cars remain linked to crude oil for their fuels, lubricants and a host of ancillary products. Faced with current tensions, manufacturers and distributors are trying to increase their inventories and find suppliers outside the Middle East. If the conflict continues, even a simple oil change could become a headache for owners of thermal cars.
/2026/05/24/6a12c2e5112d5192171023.jpg "Extension of the ceasefire, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz… What is contained in the new draft agreement between the United States and Iran, currently under negotiation")
