A note from the Jean-Jaurès Foundation analyzes the electoral base of the RN as a heterogeneous coalition of anger, whose cohesion is fragile.
Far from being a monolithic bloc, the electoral strength of the National Rally rests on an alliance of circumstances between social groups with contradictory aspirations. This is the central observation of an analytical note published on May 15 by the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, which highlights the structural fragility of a party whose current power masks deep flaws. The document is clear: “The RN does not constitute a homogeneous bloc, but a broad and profoundly heterogeneous electoral coalition”. This dynamic, if it is a force for conquering power, could become its main Achilles heel once confronted with the exercise of it.
Two Frances that are completely opposed
The study identifies two major but antagonistic sociological pillars within this electorate. On the one hand, the “forgotten France”, that of the peripheral territories, the working classes and difficult ends of the month. This electorate, marked by a feeling of downgrading, expects reinforced protection and massive redistribution of wealth from the State. The analysis underlines this in a spectacular way: “100% of the members of this group consider that we must take from the rich to give to the poor.” For them, the RN vote is a form of social revenge.
On the other hand, the party is increasingly appealing to “identity liberals”, an electorate often older, more affluent, traditionally anchored to the right and attached to economic liberalism. Their primary concern is not the social question, but the defense of a cultural order that they consider threatened. These two universes, which everything seems to oppose in terms of economic and social projects, find themselves united by the same rejection of the elites and the political system in place.
A mobile electorate more than adherent
Beyond these two bases, the progression of the RN is based on more volatile groups. “Sliding France” represents this part of the electorate, often depoliticized, which no longer believes in traditional parties and turns to the RN by default, as if to “try out” a new political offer. Their vote is more a symptom of the crisis of representation than a deep ideological adherence.
Added to this group is the “opportunistic radical right”, made up of voters tired of the classic right-wing considered too moderate. They joined the RN for its firmness on legal and identity issues, but without subscribing to its social program, considered too statist. For these two categories, the RN vote is more about strategic mobility than acquired loyalty, making their support potentially precarious.
The dilemma of a base with irreconcilable interests
This heterogeneity exposes the National Rally to a central dilemma: how to govern while satisfying radically opposed expectations? “Forgotten France” calls for more state interventionism, while the “identity liberals” and the “opportunist radical right” advocate a reduction in public spending and taxes. “Slippery France”, for its part, seeks to be reassured, an expectation potentially incompatible with the radicality demanded by another segment of its electorate.
The document from the Jean-Jaurès Foundation emphasizes this tension inherent in the growth of the party: “as a party increases its electoral base, it brings together individuals with increasingly diverse profiles.” In other words, the more the RN broadens its audience, the more it imports into its midst explosive contradictions which could paralyze its future action.
A false standardization?
The success of the RN is undeniable, as evidenced by its normalization in the political landscape: according to the note, 45% of voters declare a probability of at least 50% of voting for it. This level has never been reached. But this new respectability is based on a major sociological paradox: the RN has become the refuge of incompatible anger. It is both the party of those who want more redistribution and of those who refuse it; the party of a strong state and a minimal state; the party of rupture and that of restoration. The note concludes with a clear warning: “The National Rally coalition can win an election; it can also crack when the time comes to make choices.”
Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agency.
