Between Washington and Havana, history seems to catch up with the present. After the American operation which led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the Cuban authorities now fear a possible military intervention by the United States. Tensions rose further this week with the indictment by the US Department of Justice of former Cuban President Raul Castro, accused of conspiracy in connection with the deaths of three US citizens during the downing of two planes in 1996.
A few days earlier, the Cuban Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bruno Rodriguez, denounced a “fake news” campaign after information claiming that Cuba had acquired some 300 military drones capable of reaching the coast of Florida. In Havana, these accusations are seen as a possible pretext for American intervention, especially since Donald Trump recently designated Cuba as the “next” country after Venezuela, going so far as to say that he would be honored to “take Cuba.”
This new episode is part of more than a century of conflicting relationships. Since Cuban independence, Washington has considered the island as a major strategic issue, due to its geographical proximity to the United States. After the Spanish-American War of 1898, Cuba formally obtained its independence in 1902, but American influence remained massive, notably through Guantanamo and the right to intervene in Cuban affairs.
The shift came with the revolution of 1959 and the coming to power of Fidel Castro, who installed a communist regime and moved closer to the Soviet Union. The American embargo, the assassination attempts against Castro and the failure of the Bay of Pigs landings in 1961 then reinforced the hostility between the two countries. This confrontation culminated in October 1962, when the installation of Soviet missiles in Cuba placed the world on the brink of nuclear war, before a compromise between John F. Kennedy and Moscow.
The Obama era briefly opened a period of relaxation, with the reestablishment of diplomatic relations in 2015 and the reopening of embassies. But this standardization remained limited. Today, between American pressure, the Venezuelan crisis, the war against Iran and suspicions surrounding drones, mistrust dominates again. Cuba says it does not want war, while preparing to respond to “external aggression”. The old Caribbean conflict, which almost tipped the world into nuclear apocalypse, is once again becoming a major source of tension.
