After Venezuela and Iran, will the United States intervene in Cuba?

Tension between Washington and Havana is at its peak. Revelations about drones allegedly supplied to Cuba by Moscow and Tehran are fueling American fears and reinforcing scenarios of a military intervention suggested by Donald Trump.

American intelligence officials stated on Sunday, May 17, to Axios that Havana had stocked over 300 drones and military officials were considering their targets: the Guantanamo base in the east of the island, military ships, or Key West across the Florida Strait. Cuba has reportedly discreetly acquired drones from Russia and Iran for three years, with military advisers sent on-site.

Mentioning drones at the White House today evokes images of the devastating war in Ukraine and Iranian attacks on American bases in the Middle East. Knowing this weapon in the hands of a 70-year-old neighboring enemy might be all Donald Trump needs to trigger the military intervention he has been talking about for months.

The regime, not denying the drone history, emphasizes its right to legitimate self-defense. President Miguel Díaz-Canel states that his country “poses no threat,” but in case of an attack, they could “start a bloodbath with incalculable consequences.” “The United States already tried to invade us, unsuccessfully, in the 60s,” reminds the Cuban ambassador to the UN, “and the will of the people has not changed.”

In recent days, civil defense has distributed a “conduct guide” to residents to protect themselves “in case of military aggression.” Although discussions are ongoing, it is clear that relations continue to deteriorate due to Washington’s increasing pressure each day.

The first victims are the Cubans, exhausted by four months of oil blockade, 20-hour daily power cuts, and food shortages. In Havana, there are currently protests. The United States hopes this dissent will weaken the regime. Moreover, on May 18, the Trump administration added more names to its list of individuals under sanctions: ministers, generals, and party officials. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promises this will continue.

On Wednesday, Washington could announce the indictment of former President Raúl Castro, 94, in connection with a 30-year-old case. This development would mark a major escalation, a sign of the American determination to end the Cuban regime, as was the case in Venezuela in January. The White House relied on charges against Nicolás Maduro to trigger a military intervention.