Weakened by geopolitical tensions and the resurgence of the hantavirus, global tourism is seeing its post-Covid recovery compromised.
The global tourism sector, which hoped to consolidate its rebound after the Covid-19 crisis, is facing a new area of turbulence. Between the war in Ukraine, the conflagration in the Middle East and the emergence of a health risk with the hantavirus, a climate of uncertainty weighs heavily on an industry representing more than 10% of global GDP. Economic indicators are turning orange, reflecting the sector’s hypersensitivity to external shocks.
A geopolitical context that reshuffles the cards
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, marked by the American-Israeli offensive against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has caused a major energy shock. The surge in the price of kerosene has a direct impact on airline ticket prices, forcing airlines to review their strategy. Several European carriers have already reduced their capacities, like Lufthansa which has canceled thousands of flights to try to absorb the increase in its operating costs.
This inflation spreads throughout the tourism value chain and forces households to make drastic budgetary decisions, where leisure is often the first adjustment variable. According to an Ifop study cited by the Alliance France Tourisme, four out of ten French people plan to modify or postpone their vacation plans due to the international context. The phenomenon is global: American, Australian and European travelers are hesitant to get involved, particularly fearing air transit zones located close to conflicts. As a result, Middle Eastern destinations, which posted record growth rates in 2023 and 2024, are seeing their attendance suddenly collapse.
Hantavirus, a new anxiety factor
Added to the tense geopolitical climate is an unexpected health concern: the resurgence of hantavirus cases. Although the authorities try to reassure, like Senator Philippe Tabarot for whom “the French can travel as they wish”, the strong media coverage of this virus, whose mortality rate can reach 40%, fuels a general feeling of worry. Already severely tested by the pandemic, cruise lines are once again forced to deploy reinforced health protocols to reassure customers who have become particularly wary.
France, between refuge destination and fragility
The world’s leading tourist destination, France is not impervious to these shocks. If Treasury data for 2025 showed an increase in tourism exports, this dynamic was partly based on the postponement of travelers who avoided the Middle East. The more recent signals, for spring 2026, are less encouraging. Professionals in the sector note a drop in the number of foreign tourists, particularly German, Belgian, Dutch and American, and express their concern about a summer season which promises to be uncertain. The perception of France as “too expensive”, in a context of energy inflation, also weighs on its attractiveness.
The territories are unequally affected. While certain coastal areas such as the Côte d’Azur are doing well by capitalizing on their image as a safe destination, the West and several rural areas are experiencing drops in attendance, forcing accommodation providers to increase promotional offers to attract customers.
Reinventing tourism to survive crises
Paradoxically, this situation could offer opportunities. The “staycation” phenomenon of traveling close to home is once again gaining popularity. “France is becoming a refuge destination,” estimates consultant Dominique Lecea. European tourists could favor destinations that are close and accessible by train or car.
However, this local tourism is not enough to compensate for the loss of distant customers, particularly Asians and the Middle East, known for their high spending. In Parisian palaces, suites remain unoccupied, illustrating a jaws effect feared by professionals: a drop in attendance coupled with an increase in structural costs.
The sector has already proven its resilience in the past, but the multiplication of crises now requires a profound transformation. The diversification of markets, the reduction of dependence on air transport, the move upmarket of the offer and the acceleration of the ecological transition appear as essential levers for rebuilding a more robust model. In the short term, the sector is navigating, punctuated by last minute reservations, waiting for a more stable horizon.
Bernard BERTUCCO VAN DAMME via Press Agency.
