Europe’s dependency on American liquefied natural gas is set to increase next year as the EU continues efforts to gradually end imports of Russian fossil fuels, according to a new analysis published on Wednesday by the IEEFA.
The report suggests that the United States could supply more than two-thirds of European LNG imports in 2026, strengthening Washington’s dominant position in the continent’s gas market following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the war in Iran which have reshaped global energy flows.
The IEEFA states that the US accounted for 57% of European LNG imports in 2025, a significant rise from pre-war levels. The organization warns that this share could continue to grow in the coming years if current import trends persist and new long-term supply contracts come into effect.
These findings come as most European governments aim to completely eliminate Russian gas imports by 2027 under the EU’s REPowerEU strategy. Since 2022, EU member states have increased their purchases of LNG, particularly from the US, to offset the decrease in Russian gas pipeline deliveries.
The IEEFA believes this shift has improved Europe’s short-term energy security while highlighting a growing risk of concentration. The think tank argues that replacing Russian gas dependence with reliance on another single supplier could expose Europe to future political and market instabilities.
Demand may be decreasing, but imports and investments are on the rise
The report emphasizes that American LNG imports are generally more costly than pipeline gas due to liquefaction, maritime transport, and regasification fees. The IEEFA estimates that EU countries spent around 117 billion euros on American LNG imports between early 2022 and mid-2025.
Several European policymakers and regulators have warned against excessive dependence on imported LNG. Earlier this year, European Commission Executive Vice President Teresa Ribera stressed the need to accelerate investments in renewables and electrification rather than swapping one energy dependency for another.
The EU’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators has also expressed concerns about supply concentration linked to the growing role of American LNG in the European market.
This increase in LNG imports occurs as gas consumption in Europe has been declining in recent years. Price spikes following the energy crisis, weak industrial activity, energy-saving measures, and rapid deployment of renewables have contributed to the drop in demand.
IEEFA data shows that European LNG imports decreased in 2024, with gas consumption hitting its lowest level in over a decade. However, imports rose in 2025 with colder weather conditions and government efforts to replenish stocks.
Meanwhile, several EU countries continue to expand their LNG import infrastructures. Germany, previously reliant on Russian pipeline gas, has swiftly developed floating LNG terminals and emerged as a major purchaser of American LNG in Europe.
Analysts also question the risk of Europe building excess LNG import capacities when long-term gas demand is expected to weaken during the energy transition in the coming years.
