Oil prices rose on Monday following President Trump’s comments condemning Iran’s response to an American proposal. This has raised concerns about the supply, as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping the global market tense.
The Brent crude futures contract climbed by $4.16, or 4.11%, to settle at $105.45 per barrel at 03:40 GMT. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $99.80 per barrel, up by $4.38, or 4.59%.
Last week, both reference contracts recorded weekly losses of 6% in hopes of an imminent end to the ten-week conflict that would have allowed oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
“The oil market continues to react like a machine to geopolitical headlines, with prices swinging sharply with every comment, rejection, or warning coming from Washington and Tehran,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
President Trump is set to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to address the Iranian issue, among other subjects, with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to U.S. officials.
“The market’s attention is now firmly focused on President Trump’s visit to China this week,” noted Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, in a note.
“The hope lies in his ability to convince Beijing to use its influence on Iran to promote a global ceasefire and a resolution to the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”
The world has lost about one billion barrels of oil in the past two months, and energy markets will take time to stabilize even if flows resume, said Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco on Sunday.
Two other oil tankers carrying crude left the Strait of Hormuz last week with their transponders turned off to avoid Iranian attacks, according to maritime data from Kpler, highlighting a growing trend aimed at maintaining Middle East oil exports.
“Even if the acute oil shock fades by the end of 2026, the persistent risk of new disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, depleted stocks, and weakened political coordination should keep a geopolitical risk premium integrated into prices,” wrote ING analysts in a note on Monday.
They forecast that Brent will remain above $90 per barrel until 2026 and will be between $80 and $85 in 2027, as demand growth resumes and stocks gradually rebuild.
