In Thailand, will Thaksin Shinawatra return to politics? Doubt looms large, particularly since the former Prime Minister was released from prison this Monday morning.
The 76-year-old billionaire, who made his fortune in telecommunications, had been serving a one-year prison sentence for corruption since September. He will have to wear an electronic bracelet during his four-month probation period.
Red shirts to celebrate Thaksin’s release
Upon his release Monday morning, Thaksin hugged several of his relatives who were waiting for him outside the prison, as did hundreds of his supporters dressed in red, the usual color of support for the former Prime Minister, some shouting “We love Thaksin”. “I don’t think he’s going to stop politics,” said Janthana Chaidej, a 70-year-old cook, who took time off for the occasion. Thaksin “maybe stay away for a few months but he won’t stop politics,” she wants to believe.
His daughter, former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, said Thursday, after a final visit to her father in prison, that she had not discussed politics, “only family.”
A political dynasty victim of coups
The Shinawatra family, with its Pheu Thai party and its previous incarnations, dominated Thai political life for around twenty years. Supported by rural populations, it has long been the sworn enemy of the elite favorable to the army and royal power, who considered its populism as a threat to the traditional social order.
Thaksin Shinawatra was Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006, before being overthrown by a military coup and going into exile for around fifteen years. His younger sister, Yingluck, served as prime minister from 2011 to 2014 before also being ousted by the military, and his daughter, Paetongtarn, was deposed in August. 2025 after only one year in this position.
Bad legislation for Pheu Thai
Pheu Thai, however, recorded the worst electoral result in its history during the legislative elections in February, falling to third place and raising questions about the future of Thaksin’s political dynasty. Its inclusion in the government coalition of conservative Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, however, leaves open the possibility of a return to the forefront of the populist party. Thaksin’s release “will strengthen Pheu Thai in the short term because people will have the feeling that his boss is back,” analyzes Wanwichit Boonprong, lecturer in political science at Rangsit University.
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So will the political cards be reshuffled in Thailand? To answer it, we will have to wait a few weeks to see what Thaksin will really do.
