Since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, Donald Trump has criticized NATO members for their lack of support, adding to the American president’s additional criticism of the transatlantic alliance.
Donald Trump continues to criticize NATO, expressing frustration over its members’ low military spending, lamenting their restraint in the Iran war, labeling it a “paper tiger,” and questioning its future, urging Europeans to take more responsibility for their own security.
At the beginning of the month, the White House tenant said he plans to further reduce the presence of American troops in Germany, after announcing the withdrawal of 5,000 troops within a year. This concrete evidence shows that Washington is increasingly disinterested in European security due to the war in Iran and the growing threat of China.
NATO, more than a military alliance
Despite Donald Trump’s tirades, the United States remains a member of NATO. Even though the American president is a vocal critic, the military alliance brings economic benefits to the country. This is evident despite the American contribution to NATO’s budget hovering around 15%.
Beyond the military and security dimension frequently referred to in this debate, American membership in the organization also has an economic dimension. An American withdrawal from NATO would cost Washington dearly despite the expenses associated with belonging to the transatlantic alliance.
If a divorce with NATO were to occur, “Washington risks losing billions of dollars in trade, supply chain integration, and institutional confidence,” warned a study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CESI) published last April 22. The authors emphasize that “NATO was designed to do much more than ensure security” as the organization “established deep economic integration.”
> “It is a long-term economic asset,” they concluded.
“The economic gains are significant, lasting, and, in many cases, effectively self-finance compared to the cost of membership. As the hub of the alliance, the United States has disproportionately benefited from this economic integration and would suffer some of the heaviest losses in the event of the alliance’s dissolution,” they ventured.
Being a NATO member, a pledge of “trust”
And in numbers, what does that look like? Two researchers from the University of Westminster, Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo, estimated in December 2024 that “NATO membership increases bilateral exchanges between its members by 12 to 27% in the long term.” This range was calculated on more than 5,500 goods and takes into account that most of the 32 NATO members are also part of the European Union.
So how does a military alliance influence trade between its members? Several mechanisms are identified by CESI, such as “reducing uncertainty and institutional trust” and interoperability thanks to NATO’s hundreds of standardization agreements.
> “It is because of this that a Danish F-35 can be maintained at a Polish air base with American components,” illustrate the study’s authors.
A shared economic ecosystem that goes beyond the defense world with “implications for the civilian industry.”
Also, belonging to NATO sends other members “a signal of credible long-term engagement” that “promotes relations with suppliers, foreign investments, and further integration of production.”
Leaving NATO would be an economic disaster across the Atlantic. Especially since Americans would be “the most economically affected” if NATO were to disappear. According to modeling established by researchers Karen Jackson and Oleksandr Shepotylo, an American withdrawal would lead to a 0.41% decline in the US GDP and a 16.1% drop in exports.
Europe, the American forward base to the Middle East
Beyond the economic consequences, what would happen to the 86,000 American soldiers stationed in Europe if Washington were to leave NATO? From Iceland to Spain, and from England to Turkey, American military presence is spread throughout the continent via air, maritime, and land bases.
The most well-known of these is located in Ramstein, west of Germany. It houses 54,000 civilians and military personnel, making it the largest concentration of Americans outside the United States. In recent weeks, it has served as a logistical platform for the American deployment in the Middle East.
These bases are of strategic importance to the Pentagon for each of its military interventions in the region. Strikes in Iran have increased activity. In western England, residents of Kempsford have been able to observe the back and forth of American bombers during the 39 days of strikes against the Mullahs regime.
In practice, it is unlikely in its current state that the United States will leave NATO. For that, Donald Trump must obtain the consent of two-thirds of senators, which seems unlikely given the current configuration, or through the adoption of a separate law in Congress. Before that, the American president must consult the two Foreign Affairs commissions and notify them six months before any deliberation.
And if Donald Trump were to complete the legislative process, NATO’s departure would be effective a year later. But for now, his simple statements or posts on Truth Social are enough to shake NATO. The American position at the next Atlantic alliance summit, set to begin in early July in Ankara, will be closely scrutinized.
