In just a few days, Bitcoin has caught its breath. While war has reignited fear, the queen of cryptos has seen a spectacular rebound of $10,000. Behind the apparent volatility lies a simple question: just a false rebound or the gradual return of a true bullish dynamic?
In the space of a week, Bitcoin has regained $10,000, going from $65,000 to nearly $75,000. A surprising rebound for a risky asset that has been particularly sensitive to anxiety-inducing contexts lately. But the spark recalls a historical precedent: following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, Bitcoin had made an equally astonishing performance, gaining over 30% in a month before plunging back into correction. This time again, the conflict that erupted at the end of February 2026 in the Middle East coincided with a spectacular resurgence of volatility. Bitcoin initially dropped to around $60,000 before suddenly rising again.
But this simplistic explanation hides other deeper factors. Behind the geopolitical rumblings emerges a longer movement: the resurgence of institutional investors and the opening of a new regulatory chapter in the United States. More practically, Bitcoin may be starting a new bullish cycle – or on the contrary, is it just consolidating a technical low before a relapse?
Already, several elements argue for Bitcoin’s outperformance beyond just the war tunnel effect. First, paradoxically, it had already dropped significantly before the latest conflict. By the end of February 2026, Bitcoin had a drawdown of nearly 50% from its historical peak – a severe correction but not exceptional in its long history.
In other words, the asset was heavily sold before the conflict. At $60,000 a few days ago, Bitcoin triggered a phase of psychological cleansing of extreme fear equivalent to a capitulation similar to that seen during the FTX drop or during Covid.
The thunder of prices should not overshadow the less visible but more decisive fact that Wall Street and banking institutions are integrating Bitcoin into their infrastructure. In early March, the platform Kraken announced that its banking subsidiary – Kraken Financial – obtained its first “master” account with the Federal Reserve. Kraken can now directly access the Fedwire payment system, bypassing bank intermediaries, facilitating transfers of large amounts in USD for its institutional clients. This historic milestone makes the crypto sector a full-fledged participant in the American sovereign payment network, a strong signal that the crypto-infrastructure is now converging with traditional financial mechanisms.
At the same time, the operator of the New York Stock Exchange (Intercontinental Exchange, ICE) invested in the platform OKX, valued at $25 billion. This stake reinforces a direct link between stock markets (NYSE) and cryptos: ICE will use OKX’s crypto prices for its own derivative products, while OKX will distribute certain ICE contracts to millions of investors around the world.
Amid these financial signals, the American regulatory context adds to this dynamic. The United States may be nearing a favorable legislative turning point that could bolster investor confidence. The so-called “Clarity Act” bill, aimed at clarifying cryptocurrency regulation, is on the verge of being unblocked in Congress after years of uncertainty. The main sticking point was the controversial “stablecoin returns”: traditional banks reject the idea that stablecoin issuers (cryptocurrencies meant to stay parity with the dollar) can offer high interest rates to their holders, fearing a flight of bank deposits.
But at the end of February, the White House held more or less secret meetings between bankers and crypto leaders to find a compromise on this issue. An agreement seems close by the end of March according to several media outlets: the idea would be to limit stablecoin rewards to peer-to-peer transactions, while prohibiting them on inactive wallets. If this compromise is reached, the Clarity Act could be adopted in the Senate in the following months and potentially serve as a solid foundation for a wider adoption of crypto products in the global financial sector. The explicit support of Donald Trump, whose entourage has recently advocated for this bill, reinforces this perspective. Ultimately, while the spotlight remains on missiles in the Middle East, it is the behind-the-scenes work – framing a clear regulatory framework – that could truly give a second wind to the crypto ecosystem.
This does not mean that the bullish trend is guaranteed. Financial markets remain nervous. In the short term, the current rebound still has the air of a fragile reconquest until the movement perseveres for a certain time. However, the immediate implication for the general public and the average investor is more down-to-earth: Bitcoin still maintains its dual nature today. On one hand, the long secular bear market has significantly raised the psychological threshold for the majority of participants. Caution prevails, and nobody dares to proclaim a new bull run as was done in 2020. But on the other hand, behind this caution, everything indicates that the “mechanics” of Bitcoin has not stalled. Financial levers are clear, liquidity is there, and most importantly, the overall context (monetary, technological, institutional) is beginning to work in favor of an uptrend.
The question is not so much “will Bitcoin continue to rise?” – because no one knows – but “does the bullish scenario become credible considering what is being built behind the scenes?”. On this subject, the excitement of the past week has made bullish arguments more difficult to refute, even if they do not resolve the question. A definitive answer will come in the next few days/weeks.
