The United Arab Emirates Leaves OPEC: Is This a Turning Point for the Global Oil Market?

The United Arab Emirates officially left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday. This sudden departure by a heavyweight in the cartel could reshape the global oil market balance.

Published on: May 2, 2026 at 06:22
Reading Time: 3 min

The announcement of the UAE’s departure was made on April 28, to come into effect on Friday, May 1. This move comes amidst strong internal tensions within OPEC+ regarding production quotas, and amidst a regional crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil flows and accentuating differences among major Gulf producers. Founded in 1960, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) aims to coordinate production policies of its members to influence crude oil prices.

Often labeled as a cartel, the organization is based on a simple principle: adjusting global oil supply to stabilize prices. Less production leads to price increases, while increased supply tends to lower them. Over the decades, OPEC has expanded and now operates in tandem with OPEC+, an alliance including ten additional countries, including Russia. Together, they represent about a third of global oil production. Within this group, the UAE held a strategic position as one of the main producers, with an estimated production of about 3.6 million barrels per day.

In addition to their current production, the UAE has a major asset: a rapid capacity to increase their production. The country has heavily invested to reach over 4 million barrels per day, with a stated goal of 5 million by 2027. This increase in power has clashed with the quotas imposed by OPEC+, limiting each member’s production to regulate prices. By leaving the organization, Abu Dhabi is freed from these constraints. The goal is clear: to produce more and quickly sell their resources in a global energy transition context where oil demand could decrease in the long term.

While Emirati authorities claim this decision is “not political,” it comes amidst occasionally strained relations with Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC. Disagreements have arisen in recent years over production levels and certain strategic orientations within the OPEC+ alliance. These two former allies have disagreed on several foreign policy matters, and their disagreement publicly surfaced in December regarding Yemen where they support rival factions. Since the start of the Middle East conflict, Abu Dhabi has not hidden its disappointment with traditional allies, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council, whose headquarters are in Riyadh.

In the short term, this departure should not cause immediate disruption in the market, as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and exports limited. But in the medium term, the consequences could be more significant. Freed from quotas, the UAE could increase their production, injecting more barrels into the global market. It is hard to imagine that this increase would not exert downward pressure on oil prices. Another possible consequence is a loss of regulatory capacity for OPEC, which loses a producer capable of quickly adjusting production in case of a shock.

Finally, this departure raises concerns about the internal cohesion of the cartel. Several member countries have already been flagged for exceeding quotas, including Iraq and Kazakhstan, according to regular reports from the International Energy Agency. Although no other departures are officially being considered at this stage, the UAE’s decision could fuel tensions and weaken the organization’s unity. With the exit of a major and flexible player, OPEC enters a new phase where its ability to stabilize the global oil market could face further challenges.