Air France

( AFP / ERIC PIERMONT )

The Franco-Dutch aviation giant Air France-KLM lowered its forecasts for 2026 on Thursday due to the Middle East war, expecting lower growth as the fuel bill starts to rise.

The group forecasts an increase in its capacity of 2 to 4% this year, down from the previous 3 to 5%. The announcement was made during the first quarter results, a low season where the group slightly increased its net loss (+1%) to 252 million euros.

“While the increase in fuel prices is not yet reflected in the results we are presenting today, it will weigh on the coming quarters,” justified CEO Benjamin Smith in a statement.

Air France-KLM expects to pay $9.3 billion for fuel this year, which is 35% more than its previous estimate made before the outbreak of the Middle East war.

The price of fuel more than doubled in the weeks following the attacks on Iran on February 28. The group benefits from its traditional policy of forward purchases: Air France-KLM already has a coverage contract for 66% of its 2026 fuel and 33% for 2027.

Air France, KLM, and Transavia are three companies with little exposure to the Middle East, a region where traffic is disrupted. The group explained that it has “recorded very good performances” on other routes, “the North Atlantic, Central and South America, as well as Asia.”

Mr. Smith praised “a strong performance, with a strong increase in unit revenue,” meaning revenue per passenger carried (3.4% at constant exchange rates, compared to +0.5% for unit cost).

In the first quarter, revenue increased by 4% to 7.48 billion euros, with 22.3 million passengers, 2.3% more than a year ago, and a higher aircraft load factor (+0.3 points, to 86.3%).