By Wa Lone
As the future of the fragile truce between the United States, Israel, and Iran remains uncertain, the Iranian diaspora in North America remains divided on what should be the next step in their eyes.
During a gathering in Toronto on Sunday, protesters expressed hope that U.S. President Donald Trump would continue his military intervention for a regime change in Iran.
Others, while opposing the Islamic Republic, felt that the war had only worsened the sufferings of Iranians.
The American-Israeli offensive in Iran, which began on February 28, has reignited debates on a regime change in Tehran, with the clerical regime, in place for decades, facing increasing opposition.
A question thus divides the Iranian diaspora: can and should foreign military pressure contribute to dismantling the theocratic government, or should political change come from within?
According to Tehran’s data, up to five million Iranians live abroad, most of them in North America and Western Europe. Iranian media estimate their numbers to be close to 10 million.
Many Iranians fled the country after the Islamic revolution of 1979.
CONSENSUS ON THE FALL OF THE REGIME
While a ceasefire agreement, recently extended, has halted American and Israeli strikes against Iran, no agreement has been reached on the conditions for ending the war by the warring parties.
Thousands of deaths, mostly civilians, have occurred in Iran during the bombings.
In Toronto, home to one of the largest Iranian communities in North America, around 300 protesters waved American and Israeli flags and called for the end of the theocratic system in Tehran.
Earlier this year, hundreds of thousands of people participated in anti-government demonstrations in the city. Many waved the pre-revolutionary flag of the country, often used to show support for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last Shah.
“The Islamic regime is our main enemy. We want countries like the United States and Israel to help us overthrow it,” said Ali Daneshfar, coordinator of operations at Cyrus the Great, an Iranian group based in Toronto.
He noted that the recent protests in Iran against the government, violently suppressed, left few options for Iranians to oppose the Islamic Republic.
Nasser Sharif, president of the California Society for Democracy in Iran, expressed a radically different view, welcoming the ceasefire and warning that war would only strengthen the authorities’ grip on power.
“We believe that bombing the regime will not bring democratic change in Iran,” he said.
“The regime uses war to further repress, execute more people, and terrorize the population inside the country.”
Nasser Sharif, who said he supported the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an opposition coalition, stated that the ceasefire could give Iranians the opportunity to organize again after weeks of conflict.
“It’s the least costly option, without foreign troops and without prolonging suffering,” he said, arguing that lasting change should be led by Iranians themselves rather than imposed from abroad.
NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE HAS BROUGHT RELIEF
Despite the death of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the war, the Islamic Republic has demonstrated its resilience.
The rise to power of Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has allowed the Islamic Republic to maintain itself, benefiting from the support of the commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who dominate the new order in power.
Nasser Sharif stated that the Revolutionary Guards remained integral to the ruling system, with no significant changes in the decision-making structure despite the removal of some figures.
According to Akaash Maharaj, a researcher at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, divisions among Iranians living abroad run deep.
“On one hand, what concerns them is the well-being of people in Iran, their friends and relatives who are often collateral victims of politics and conflict. On the other hand, they want to be perceived and understood as patriotic citizens of their new countries, which they now consider their homeland.”
Mohammad Solehi, an Iranian living in Toronto, said that his friends and family in Iran had told him that the war had left many people feeling trapped.
According to him, his friends in Iran stated that daily life had become increasingly uncertain, with neither war nor peace bringing any relief.
“People expect fighting to resume at any moment and have no idea what will happen next,” he said. (French version Etienne Breban, edited by Benoit Van Overstraeten)
