SME

The degradation is settling in. The 155th Grant Thornton barometer of confidence of SMEs and ETIs, published in mid-April, confirms a lasting shift in the economic climate. Conducted by OpinionWay among 220 leaders, the study highlights a marked drop in optimism, in a context of international tension.

“March alerted us. April confirms: ETI and SME leaders are no longer facing a conjunctural shock, but a deep reconfiguration of global economic balances. Caution has settled in strategies, employment is at a standstill, choices must be made. It is precisely in these moments that quality support makes a difference, the kind that helps to decide, not just to wait,” declared Adam Nicol, president of Grant Thornton.

A decline in confidence in the French and global economy

The signal is clear according to the study: only 22% of leaders declare themselves optimistic about the evolution of the French economy, a historically low level since the end of the health crisis, compared to 66% a year ago. All sectors are affected, with a majority of concerned actors in industry, commerce, and services.

Internationally, the situation is even more degraded. Confidence drops to 18%, an unprecedented low since 2020. The tensions in the Middle East are to blame, amplifying the effects of the oil shock and disrupting global supply chains.

Activity: a general decline

The business activity outlook is also declining. This month, 66% of leaders are confident about their own company, a drop of 10 points in two months. The indicator falls below 70%, breaking the positive trend observed in 2025. All sectors are affected: services fall to 75%, commerce to 65%, and industry to 61%. A homogeneous decline reflecting generalized concern.

Previously resilient, the employment dynamics show a clear slowdown. Only 11% of leaders plan to increase staff, while 10% anticipate reductions. The employment balance falls by 1 point, indicating a fragile situation. This apparent stability masks a real risk of moving into negative territory, in an environment marked by uncertainty.

Growth and investments under pressure

Growth prospects are significantly contracting: 39% of leaders anticipate progress, compared to 55% in February. Conversely, stagnation becomes the dominant scenario for 50% of them.

Strategic choices are evolving. The proportion of companies declaring themselves not concerned about certain investments is increasing, especially in R&D and international activities, indicating a focus on immediate priorities. Moreover, 26% of leaders are considering external growth operations, with 10% certain about it.

International tensions are once again the main concern for leaders: 61% place geopolitical issues at the top of their concerns. Additionally, 64% believe that the conflict in the Middle East influences their prospects.

Adaptation and refocusing strategies

In response to this context, companies are adjusting their strategies. Nearly 59% anticipate an impact on their prices, mostly increasing, due to energy costs. Supply chains are also evolving: 53% of leaders are considering modifications, between diversification and supplier reduction.

Finally, energy projects are being reassessed. Nearly half of leaders foresee adjustments, between slowing down and accelerating investments. In this uncertain climate, some issues such as skills, cybersecurity, or regulations are temporarily put on the back burner, a sign of strategic refocusing dictated by economic urgency.