In recent statements, the US military has expressed concerns about Russia’s new anti-missile defense capabilities. In addition to missiles, the Kremlin is developing satellites capable of destroying other satellites, as well as some nuclear options.
In space, no one can hear you fire… but the silence of vacuum doesn’t prevent the rise of tensions. General Stephen Whiting, head of the US Space Command, recently expressed concerns about suspicious movements of Russian satellites. After several tests in low Earth orbit, described as Russian “satellite dolls”, Moscow is now developing potentially operational antisatellite capabilities that could target US strategic assets.
Without explicitly naming the program, the senior officer was likely referring to the Russian “Nivelir” system. After being launched into orbit, these satellites reportedly released smaller objects to carry out their own maneuvers, with one of them projecting an unidentified object at high speed during a 2020 test that American analysts interpreted as a possible projectile aimed at another satellite.
The most recent satellite suspected of belonging to the Russian Nivelir program was reportedly launched in May from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, located 800 km north of Moscow. This happened with very precise timing, coinciding with the orbital passage of an American spy satellite. According to American authorities, this system, tested since 2013 and observed approaching American satellites since 2019, is now operational.
“It is clear that Russia was deploying a space weapon in this area and placing it in an orbit that would allow it to reach key US national security satellites,” General Whiting said at a conference at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. “If we look at the initial launches of this system, the Russian system of Russian dolls, we see that they were tests.”
A “long history” of antisatellite weapons
Less financially endowed than American and Chinese programs, the Russian space industry produces fewer satellites and conducts less frequent launches. However, it is reportedly developing a unique approach to antisatellite weapons. Apart from its “antisatellite satellites” capabilities, Russia also has missiles capable of striking objects in orbit.
Early in the space era, due to the low precision of missiles, they had to carry a nuclear payload designed to explode near the target satellite. Subsequently, other methods were developed, such as creating debris clouds or projectiles on the target’s path, or using kinetic devices capable of directly hitting satellites.
“The Russia remains a capable space power, despite its space industry suffering from chronic underfunding, quality control issues, international sanctions, and export controls,” the US intelligence agencies said in their annual unclassified threat assessment published earlier this year.
The Soviet Union also designed antisatellite satellites, the “IS” (Istrebitel Spoutnikov, “satellite destroyer”). In practice, only a few countries have demonstrated the ability to destroy satellites with missiles: the United States, China, Russia (and previously the USSR), as well as India, through various tests conducted since the 1980s.
Nuclear capabilities in space?
However, the US military leadership has not only focused on the Kremlin’s satellites and missiles but also on its nuclear capabilities. The possibility of a Russian nuclear antisatellite weapon was at the heart of the latest war simulation exercise conducted by the US Space Command, involving authorities, allies, and over 60 defense companies to anticipate the consequences of such a scenario.
Named “Apollo Insight,” this confidential exercise, concluded last month, explored a crisis scenario involving weapons of mass destruction in orbit. This was deemed concerning based on information about Russia’s alleged intentions, according to General Stephen Whiting. Several experts cited by Defense One note that such nuclear use in space would violate the Outer Space Treaty, even though Washington sees the need to prepare for this “doomsday scenario.”
According to The Times, a nuclear explosion in low Earth orbit (between 480 and 1,930 km altitude) could damage or destroy up to 10,000 satellites, approximately 80% of the active total. Such an event would affect both military intelligence and targeting capabilities, as well as a large portion of civilian services (communications, internet, telephony, and GPS), leading the British newspaper to label this scenario a true “space Pearl Harbor.”
