In 2026, Japan will update its national security strategy, last revised in December 2022. The regional security context has significantly deteriorated for Tokyo, facing a triple authoritarian and nuclear front with deepening solidarity, raising fears of coordination with dramatic implications for the archipelago.
At the same time, the underlying trend of the United States narrowing down its national interests is increasing. The transactional and cynical approach of the second Trump administration is prompting Tokyo to accelerate investments in its defense capabilities to enhance its contribution to the security alliance with the U.S. and balance roles within it.
This effort is accompanied by determined steps to diversify security partners and uphold the conditions of a free and open Indo-Pacific space. Beyond its own defense, Japan has become a security provider in Asia and a crucial strategic partner, even for Europeans.
The threat of unprecedented conflict
Tensions are escalating between Japan and its Chinese, Russian, and North Korean neighbors, especially as the war in Ukraine stirs fears of an open conflict in Asia.
China, top risk
China, threatening the archipelago’s territorial integrity, represents Japan’s primary security risk. Chinese vessels have been patrolling the Senkaku Islands’ adjacent waters in the East China Sea persistently since 2012, aiming to challenge Japan’s control over these islands it claims. These incursions, led by coast guard ships or fishermen rather than the Chinese military, involve a “grey zone tactic,” hard to control without risking military escalation. Alongside naval and aerial intrusions, Beijing has increased its defense spending significantly compared to Tokyo since 2000, fundamentally altering the balance of power and Japan’s deterrent capability. The 2022 National Security Strategy defines China as a “strategic challenge without precedent”.
In 2024 and 2025, China’s increased naval and aerial activities in the Pacific included more frequent passages through the Soya, Tsugaru, Miyako, and Tsushima straits around the Japanese archipelago. Provocations escalated with intrusions into Japanese maritime and airspace in August 2024, the first passage of a Chinese aircraft carrier between Yonaguni and Iriomote, placement of a surveillance buoy in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in November 2024, and the unprecedented deployment of two Chinese aircraft carriers in the Pacific in June 2025.
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>> Read the full article in the April-May 2026 issue of Questions Internationales.
