Since February 28, American exports of crude oil and petroleum products have surged by 17%. They now stand at nearly 13 million barrels per day, according to the Department of Energy figures, surpassing the volume of any other country.
- American exports have been increasing steadily since 2022.
- Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is contributing to this trend by removing the equivalent of 20 million barrels per day from the market.
- With Gulf refineries shut down, importers, especially in Asia and Europe, are turning more towards the United States.
However, American producers alone cannot fully compensate for the loss of oil flow through the Persian Gulf before the war. Analyst Matt Smith from Kpler estimates that the US theoretically can export up to 6.5 million barrels per day, compared to an average of 3.5 to 4.5 million in recent years. Export levels are expected to stabilize around 5.5 million barrels per day due to logistical constraints.
The war’s impact has led to a reshuffling of global oil and gas flows, with many supertankers redirecting towards the US instead of the Persian Gulf. Similarly to how the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 strengthened Europe’s dependence on American liquefied natural gas (LNG), a similar phenomenon is noted with crude oil and petroleum products.
Furthermore, new importers may engage in multi-year supply contracts with American companies due to war-induced instability. The reorganization of energy flows will depend on factors like conflict progression and rising tanker shipping costs, which have increased by over 20% since the start of the year.
The extent of the reorganization will also hinge on the availability of ships for long-term American exports and their ability to reach ports.
Sources:
- Ben German, “Trump’s oil export surge and ceiling”, Axios, April 24, 2026.
- Jamie Smyth, Malcolm Moore, Nassos Stylianou, Dan Clark, Irene de la Torre Arenas, and Steven Bernard, “America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war”, Financial Times, April 25, 2026.
- “Tanker Market Stabilizing After Recent Turbulence”, Hellenic Shipping News, April 27, 2026.
- Christopher Charleston, “US Oil Exports to Hit 5 Million Barrels a Day Amid Global Crunch”, Bloomberg, April 9, 2026.
