Kazakhstan: referendum intended to soften a political system controlled by the president

On Sunday, Kazakhstan overwhelmingly adopted a new Constitution aimed at democratizing the country’s economy in Central Asia, despite amendments seen to strengthen President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s grip on power. According to three exit polls conducted for state media, between 86.7% and 88.6% of voters approved the constitutional amendments in this country allied with Russia and China, while also being an economic partner of the European Union.

Since the deaths of 238 people in January 2022 during protests over the cost of living that escalated into riots, President Tokayev claims to be building a “just Kazakhstan” by liberalizing the political system. Elected in 2019 after the surprise resignation of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had been in power for three decades, Mr. Tokayev asserts that with this new Constitution, “Kazakhstan is finally moving away from its super-presidential regime towards a presidential republic with an influential Parliament.”

Voter turnout reached 73.24% after a campaign where authorities mobilized famous artists and athletes. An AFP photographer witnessed many people taking selfies while voting, and voters received gifts, practices common in Central Asia where international observers regularly note the lack of transparency in elections.

Critics of the amendments on social media were reportedly summoned by the police, and journalists who published polls received fines. President Tokayev stated that opponents were “crossing the red line” and did not understand the new Constitution. According to 60-year-old logistics worker Achirbek Berdibekov in Almaty, “a Kazakh citizen must support Kazakh policy.”

President Tokayev defends the constitutional amendments as a way to “rebuild the entire state system, allow for a redistribution of powers, and strengthen the balance of the system of checks and balances.” However, several modifications seem to indicate otherwise: the new Constitution will allow him to directly appoint heads of strategic positions such as the Central Bank, intelligence services, and Constitutional Court – appointments that previously required Senate approval. The Senate will disappear.

If the single-chamber Parliament refuses twice to approve nominations for other positions, the leader can dissolve it and enact temporary laws. The freedom of expression, already tightly controlled, should not “violate societal morality or public order.” It will be even easier to restrict demonstrations.

Human Rights Watch warned that these amendments risked causing “excessive and unjustified restrictions” on freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. Political observer Viktor Kovtunovski believes that this is more about dismantling limited liberal concessions that Tokayev was forced to make in 2022.

Similar to other former Soviet Central Asian republics where elections validate leaders’ decisions, the referendum’s adoption was assured after a one-month one-sided campaign and amendments passed in two weeks. Kovtunovski believes that this constitutional finesse can only be explained by a well-prepared transition of power, with Tokayev solidifying the throne for his successor.

The establishment of the vice presidency is among the key constitutional changes, as the future vice president could be seen as Tokayev’s successor, who will be 73 years old and has vowed not to run again in 2029.

Published on March 15 at 9:06 PM by AFP.