Philippe Rouby, president of the association of former students of Sciences Po Hautes-Pyrénées, shares his analysis of tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on the local economy.
The Week of the Pyrenees: How do you analyze the current war in the Middle East?
Philippe Rouby: This conflict is often viewed only at a regional level. Of course, local dynamics are important. But when we take a step back, we see that this war is part of a broader transformation of the international system. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has held a dominant position. Today, this position is gradually being challenged by the rise of China. In this context, some regions become places where rivalries between major powers are projected. The Middle East is clearly one of them. The region remains strategic due to its energy resources and its location between Europe, Asia, and Africa.
You mention the Thucydides Trap theory. Can you explain?
This is an idea from the Greek historian Thucydides. He explained that the Peloponnesian War broke out because the rise of Athens had concerned Sparta, the dominant power of the time. Today, some analysts use this idea to talk about the relationship between the United States and China. China is rapidly advancing economically, technologically, and militarily, while the United States remains the world’s leading power. In this kind of situation, tensions tend to increase. The established power seeks to maintain its place, while the emerging power wants to assert itself. This does not mean that conflict is inevitable, but the balance becomes more fragile.
Is the situation in Venezuela part of this logic?
Yes, in part. Venezuela shows how rivalry between major powers can be found in certain regional crises. For several years, China has strengthened its ties with Venezuela, particularly in the oil sector. Beijing has provided significant loans and receives oil in exchange. For the United States, seeing China increase its influence in Latin America is a strategic concern. The crisis in Venezuela is primarily due to internal factors, but it also fits into this broader rivalry.
Where does Israel stand in this regional balance?
Israel remains a major ally of the United States in the Middle East. The two countries cooperate closely on military, technological, and security matters. For Israeli leaders, national security remains a priority, especially in the face of Iran. They believe that Iran supports several hostile movements in Israel, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, an organization close to Iran and part of the Shiite branch. From this perspective, Israel believes it must defend itself in a particularly hostile regional environment.
Is the Iranian nuclear risk really worrying?
Yes, it is an important question. Iran currently has advanced nuclear capabilities and high levels of enriched uranium stocks. This does not mean it already has a nuclear weapon or has decided to make one. But the country is approaching the technical threshold that would allow it. However, there is no immediate danger. According to an article from Le Monde, American intelligence services recently estimated that Iran was not about to deploy a nuclear weapon. If Iran were to become a nuclear power, the balance in the Middle East would be profoundly altered and could encourage other countries in the region to follow suit.
What is Donald Trump’s position on the Iranian regime?
Donald Trump’s position is quite straightforward. His goal is to prevent Iran from accessing nuclear weapons. But there is also an energy issue. Today, China has become the main buyer of Iranian oil, with over a million barrels per day. In this context, American pressure on Iran also indirectly targets these energy flows that fuel the Chinese economy. Trump does not seem to be seeking dialogue with the mullahs’ regime. His strategy mainly relies on economic pressure.
Are we witnessing a reconfiguration of the world order?
Yes, most likely. We are entering a period of transition. The rise of China, the return of rivalry between major powers, and tensions in several regions show that the international balance is evolving. It is also important to remember that geopolitics is dynamic. Power relations change over time. We often forget that in the 16th century, Spain was the world’s leading power and Portugal was second due to their major maritime routes. International balances are never fixed. Powers rise, decline, and the global system transforms.
Could this conflict have consequences for French companies and those in Hautes-Pyrénées?
Yes, even though these effects are often indirect. The first consequence involves energy. Tensions in the Middle East can drive up oil or gas prices, impacting transportation, industry, or agriculture. We must also consider the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage between Iran and Oman. A significant amount of the world’s oil passes through it. OPEC recently increased production to stabilize markets, but if Iran disrupted traffic in this strait, oil and gas deliveries could be significantly reduced. In a region like Hautes-Pyrénées, this could affect several sectors. Industries, especially aerospace and metallurgy, are sensitive to energy costs and raw materials. Tourism could also be affected if transportation becomes more expensive or if the economy slows down. Even a territory like Hautes-Pyrénées is connected to the global economy. As the philosopher and political scientist Raymond Aron said: “Peace is impossible, war is improbable.” In other words, despite tensions, states are aware of the consequences of a major conflict. History shows that local economies often adapt to international crises.
