War in Iran: Jet fuel crisis worsens

Shortage of fuel and rising prices due to the war in the Middle East are disrupting the airline sector. The main German company, Lufthansa, has canceled 20,000 flights scheduled between May and October to reduce fuel consumption.

According to the company, these cancellations represent approximately 40,000 tons of kerosene saved, the price of which has doubled since the beginning of the conflict.

Dutch company KLM also canceled 160 flights last week for the upcoming month. In Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, other airlines are increasing prices and considering reducing flights as summer approaches.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, stated that Europe has about six weeks worth of kerosene reserves. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen believes the situation is shifting from a price problem to a supply problem. He added that member states are considering sharing their stocks to maintain air traffic.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts global oil and gas flows. European aviation is particularly affected because a large portion of imported kerosene passes through the Middle East.

Reserves in Europe

The duration of kerosene reserves in Europe remains uncertain.

Dutch authorities estimate that the European Union (EU) has at least five months of kerosene stocks for aviation and other uses like heating. However, other evaluations suggest stocks could deplete more quickly.

The EU produces about 60% to 70% of its aviation fuel but depends on imports for the rest. About half of these imports pass through the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

Some experts believe the situation could lead to stock sharing between major hubs and countries to maintain air traffic. Others are more cautious, noting that the situation is not critical yet and many canceled flights involve routes with alternatives available.

Collective stock management

European Transport Ministers met on Tuesday to coordinate their response and provide guidance to airlines.

EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would have serious consequences for Europe and the global economy.

The European Commission presented a set of measures on April 22 in the energy and transport sectors, including collective management of kerosene stocks and the option to redistribute them among member states if necessary.

Another option considered is increasing aviation fuel imports from the United States.

“We are ready to intervene and provide more flexibility to airlines if the situation persists,” stated Tzitzikostas.

Limited alternatives

The situation highlights the vulnerability of the airline sector to supply disruptions, particularly in Europe and Asia, where dependence on Middle East kerosene remains high.

An International Air Transport Association (IATA) report emphasizes that the resilience of aviation fuel supply in Europe has weakened with increased imports.

However, an alternative exists with Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), produced from biomass like plants or waste. The EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation foresees a progressive increase in their use at airports from 2026 onwards.

But supply remains limited and costs high. “There are few alternatives for the aviation industry,” explains ING transport economist Rico Luman. “A transition to SAF is not realistic in the short term given available volumes, and their prices have risen in parallel with kerosene.”

High prices and lasting uncertainty

Even if kerosene supply does not halt, price increases are expected to persist, directly impacting ticket costs for passengers.

In the short term, maneuver margins remain limited. According to Rico Luman, the main solution is to reduce fuel consumption, potentially leading to more cancellations. A price hike seems inevitable. “This is a global market. If supply tightens further, competition for kerosene will intensify,” he added.

This situation once again highlights the vulnerability of the airline sector to geopolitical tensions and could affect consumer confidence.