While an agreement regarding the war in Iran still seems far off, political scientist and specialist in international relations Bertrand Badie decrypts for La Dépêche what diplomacy according to Donald Trump is. Between an obsession to please his base, his vision of power dynamics, and his unpredictability, the American president represents a profound rupture with traditional diplomatic practices, the effects of which could significantly weaken the position of the United States on the international stage.
La Dépêche du Midi: In what way does Donald Trump’s diplomacy differ from that of his predecessors?
Bertrand Badie: The first difference is that it is a diplomacy strongly oriented towards domestic politics. All diplomacies are linked to the image that the head of state wants to portray to his people, but in this man’s case, it is particularly remarkable. He is a true populist leader who believes that the essence of his work on the international stage consists of responding to a social demand for power, showing the exceptional capacity of the United States, their ability to regulate the world.
The second important difference is that beyond this populism, Donald Trump is truly a follower of the traditional concept of power dynamics. He believes that the international game is dominated by this power dynamic. This gives him excessive confidence, for example in the operation he is leading against Iran, with a very classic vision where a superpower logically should prevail over a weaker state like Iran. But he does not understand that this old power dynamic no longer works today with simple arithmetic, because there are social, cultural, and economic parameters linked to globalization that disrupt all of this.
Has his bullying, insults, and threats of invasion towards his allies isolated the United States in this conflict with Iran?
This isolation is due to several things. First, the allies were not informed of American or Israeli plans in Iran, and this upset many people. Then, there was extremely violent language, harsh statements towards several leaders, like Emmanuel Macron or the Saudi crown prince, which worsened tensions. Finally, everyone recognizes the potential economic consequences of this war in a globalized economy, which is deeply concerning, whether in Europe, Asia, or the Global South.
Is Trump’s negotiation style a hindrance to reaching a peace agreement?
Yes, completely. Negotiation is partly undermined by his style. First, he is too unpredictable and talks too much. In a negotiation, one does not speak in such a way, because it is more rational to let the other side speak. Then, there is his rhetoric: one never really knows what to believe in what he says, making his position difficult to follow. And then there is this diplomacy of display. He wants to immediately show his public opinion that he is winning, but it becomes very clumsy in his negotiation.
Will the image of the United States be profoundly tarnished in the long term after the end of his four-year presidency?
The United States will have a hard time recovering. We already see a world in recomposition, with a rising global South and a China that is increasingly asserting itself discreetly but effectively. Many states that trusted the United States will have lasting doubts. This time, unlike Donald Trump’s first term, the consequences seem deeper because it is the very credibility of the United States that is being questioned, and they will have much more difficulty bouncing back.
